Pro Picks: 4 road teams are
favorites in wild-card weekend
[January 08, 2026]
By ROB MAADDI
The NFL’s wild-card weekend features a rematch of the 2022 NFC
championship game, two division rivals facing off, a team with a
losing record playing a home game and four road favorites.
The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and their
inconsistent offense are home against Brock Purdy, Christian
McCaffrey and the injury-depleted San Francisco 49ers.
Philly ended Purdy’s impressive rookie season three years ago by
knocking him out of the NFC title game in the first quarter and then
forced him back in to hand off after giving backup Josh Johnson a
concussion in a lopsided victory.
The Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers as the NFC North rivals
meet for the third time in six weeks. They split the season series,
each winning at home.
Bryce Young and the 8-9 Carolina Panthers take on Matthew Stafford
and the Los Angeles Rams after backing into the playoffs. The
Panthers upset the Rams in Carolina on Nov. 30.
The weekend’s other matchups include Bills-Jaguars,
Chargers-Patriots and Texans-Steelers.
Pro Picks examines all the games with lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
LOS ANGELES RAMS (12-5) at CAROLINA (8-9)
Line: Rams minus 10
The Panthers stunned the Rams 31-28 at home six weeks ago. Stafford
threw two interceptions, including a pick-6. Young had one of his
best games, going 15 of 20 for 206 yards, three TDs and no
interceptions.
Los Angeles was in the race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC before
consecutive losses to Seattle and Atlanta in Weeks 16 and 17 and
fell to fifth. Carolina won its first NFC South title in 10 years
when Atlanta beat New Orleans to eliminate Tampa Bay.
The No. 4 seed Panthers are the fifth team to reach the playoffs
with a losing record. Those teams are 2-2, including a victory by
Carolina’s 7-8-1 division championship team in 2014.
Road teams in the playoffs that have at least four wins more than
their opponent are just 2-6 in those games. But these Rams are far
superior to this Panthers team. Carolina has a minus-69 point
differential, the fourth worst for a playoff team in NFL history.
Los Angeles was 12-5 against the spread, including 6-3 on the road.
The Panthers were 10-7 ATS, 5-3 at home.
BEST BET: RAMS: 30-16
GREEN BAY (9-7-1) at CHICAGO (11-6)
Line: Packers minus 1
The Packers beat the Bears 28-21 in Green Bay with Micah Parsons on
Dec. 7. Without Parsons at Soldier Field just 13 days later, they
led Chicago 13-3 in the fourth quarter before Caleb Williams threw a
tying TD pass in the final minute and a game-winner in overtime.
The Bears finished the season with consecutive losses, including at
home to Detroit in Week 18, but still earned the NFC’s No. 2 seed
because the Eagles rested their starters and lost their final game.
The Packers finished the regular season with four consecutive losses
and were locked into the No. 7 seed going into the last game. They
rested starters, including Jordan Love, who hasn’t played since a
helmet-to-helmet hit in the second meeting against Chicago.
Bears first-year coach Ben Johnson helped Williams develop in his
second season and Chicago is in the playoffs for the first time in
five years.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur has led the team to the playoffs six
times in seven seasons.
The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games vs. Chicago, but
they’re just 2-9 ATS in their past 11 road games.
The Bears are 10-5 ATS in their past 15 games, but have won just two
of their past 16 home games against Green Bay.
The Packers’ Super Bowl hopes ended when Parsons went down.
UPSET SPECIAL: BEARS: 27-24
BUFFALO (12-5) at JACKSONVILLE (13-4)
Line: Bills minus 1
Josh Allen and the Bills didn’t win the AFC East after a five-year
run so now they have to take the road route as the No. 6 seed.
Buffalo’s Super Bowl hopes have been dashed by Kansas City four
times in the past five years. But they don’t have to worry about
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this time.
NFL rushing champion James Cook takes some pressure off Allen, the
reigning NFL MVP who is still seeking a Super Bowl appearance. Cook
is facing the NFL’s best run defense. The Jaguars allowed 85.6 yards
per game and no running back got 75 yards against them.
Rookie coach Liam Coen led an impressive nine-win turnaround in
Jacksonville, helping Trevor Lawrence have his best season. The
underrated Jaguars don’t get the attention they deserve but this
team beat No. 1 seed Denver on the road in Week 16 and closed with
eight straight wins. Lawrence is facing the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense
but the Bills were 28th against the run.
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Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen pauses during a news conference after an
NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Dec. 28,
2025, in Buffalo, N.Y. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
If the game comes down to a long field goal, the
advantage goes to the Jaguars. Cam Little set the NFL record with a
68-yarder earlier in the season, made a 67-yarder in Week 18 and
nailed one from 70 in the preseason.
Buffalo is 0-2 in the playoffs against Jacksonville.
BILLS: 26-23
SAN FRANCISCO (12-5) at PHILADELPHIA (11-6)
Line: Eagles minus 4 1/2
The 49ers missed an opportunity to get the No. 1 seed and a bye when
they lost to Seattle 13-3. This season might have been coach Kyle
Shanahan’s best season. The Niners lost their two best players on
defense, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, to season-ending injuries. Purdy
missed eight games and their group of wide receivers was decimated
by injuries. McCaffrey led the offense with an all-everything
season. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh held his unit together
but now they’ve lost linebacker Tatum Bethune for the rest of the
season with a groin injury. Star left tackle Trent Williams
(hamstring) and wideout Ricky Pearsall (knee, ankle) will be
evaluated later this week to determine whether they can return after
missing Week 18.
It’s a tough task going to Philadelphia to face a rested team. The
Eagles sat many of their starters and missed an opportunity to get
the No. 2 seed. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and the rest
of Philadelphia’s star-studded offense were inconsistent under
first-year coordinator Kevin Patullo. But Vic Fangio’s defense is
one of the league’s best.
EAGLES: 24-20
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (11-6) at NEW ENGLAND (14-3)
Line: Patriots minus 3 1/2
Despite a depleted offensive line, Justin Herbert got the Chargers
to this point. Now, he’s seeking his first career playoff win in six
years. He’s got a defense that can help him get there. Coordinator
Jesse Minter’s unit ranked fifth this season. Edge rushers Khalil
Mack and rookie Tuli Tuipulotu and hybrid safety Derwin James are
standouts. It’s going to be a big challenge for Drake Maye in his
first playoff game.
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel knows how to win big games. So does
Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh. Home-field advantage is a big factor in
this one. The Chargers were 9-8 ATS, but 4-1 as underdogs this
season. New England was 12-5 ATS.
PATRIOTS: 22-21
HOUSTON (12-5) at PITTSBURGH (10-7)
Line: Texans minus 3
Texans coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud have made the
playoffs in each of their three years together in Houston,
overcoming an 0-3 start this season. The NFL’s No. 1 defense led by
Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen
Pitre makes the Texans a Super Bowl contender despite a No. 5 seed.
That’s why they’re a road favorite.
The Steelers won the AFC North when Baltimore’s Tyler Loop missed a
44-yard field-goal attempt wide right. Aaron Rodgers was in vintage
form in the fourth quarter to lead Pittsburgh without DK Metcalf.
T.J. Watt came back and instantly made an impact.
Houston has never won a playoff game on the road, going 0-5.
Pittsburgh has lost six straight playoff games but the Steelers have
won 23 consecutive home games on Monday night since 1991.
TEXANS: 23-16
___
Last week: Straight up: 8-8. Against spread: 9-7.
Overall: Straight up: 184-87-1. Against spread: 143-121-8.
Prime time: Straight up: 32-25-1. Against spread: 26-32.
Best Bet: Straight up: 12-6. Against spread: 8-9-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 13-5. Against spread: 14-4.
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