Iran war could make Trump's trip to China a bit chillier than his
first-term visit
[May 11, 2026]
By WILL WEISSERT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Long before this week's trip to China, President
Donald Trump was already predicting on social media that his Chinese
counterpart, Xi Jinping, would “give me a big, fat hug when I get
there.”
But Beijing’s deep economic ties to Iran, as well as trade tensions over
tariff threats stretching back to Trump’s first term, could crimp the
good feelings when Trump flies to Beijing this week — even though the
Republican president has for years effusively praised Xi, making it
clear he sees China’s leader as a competitor strong enough to warrant
his respect and admiration.
Trump lately isn't very fond of long plane rides or extended stretches
away from the White House or his properties in Florida and New Jersey.
He arrives in Beijing on Wednesday night and the next morning will take
part in a welcome ceremony and meet one-on-one with Xi before the two
leaders tour the Temple of Heaven — a religious complex dating to the
15th century symbolizing the relationship between Earth and heaven.
Trump will attend a state banquet on Thursday evening and then have a
tea and working lunch with Xi on Friday before leaving, White House
spokesperson Anna Kelly said Sunday. She said they will discuss creating
a new Board of Trade to keep their countries talking on economic issues,
as well talking up key industries like energy, aerospace and
agriculture.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Monday that
Beijing is willing to work with the U.S., based on equality and mutual
respect to expand cooperation, manage differences, and add stability to
a turbulent world. The diplomacy between the leaders “plays an
irreplaceable strategic guiding role” in the bilateral relation, he
said.
There will be plenty of ceremonial splendor, but the grandeur is not
expected to rival Trump's first visit to China in 2017, which Beijing
dubbed a “state visit-plus.”
“Even before this whole conflagration with Iran, they weren’t going to
go state visit-plus like last time, just because things are tense,” said
Jonathan Czin, a former director for China at the National Security
Council during the Biden administration.
Xi's ‘better understanding’ of Trump
On Trump's first-term trip, China rolled out the red carpet for his
arrival, with a band playing military music and children waving flags
and chanting “Welcome.”
Xi offered a tour of the Forbidden City. Trump and first lady Melania
Trump even had a private dinner there. Trump was the first foreign
leader since the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949 to
experience what was once reserved for emperors.
The following morning brought another welcome ceremony at the Great Hall
of the People and featured a military parade. There also was a state
banquet in Trump’s honor with video highlights from the Chinese leader’s
previous visit to Florida and a clip of Trump’s granddaughter Arabella
singing in Chinese.
Ali Wyne, senior U.S.-China research and advocacy adviser for the
Washington nonprofit the Crisis Group, said the “Chinese delegation will
likely do its utmost to ensure that Trump leaves Beijing believing that
he has just concluded the most extraordinary state visit of his two
presidencies.”
But, he said, the “pomp and circumstance would serve a different role
now than they did when he first visited Beijing” because “Xi has a much
better understanding of Trump, and the administration’s own national
security strategy and national defense strategy recognize China as a
near-peer.”
Expectations for what gets accomplished could be lower this time, said
Czin, now a fellow at the Brookings Institution. He predicted that the
Chinese may not offer major breakthroughs on trade or anything else
because they are “working backward from our midterm elections” with the
theory that the closer they get to Election Day “the more leverage they
are going to have.”
The GOP is focused on retaining control of Congress, even as polling
shows most Americans are unhappy with Trump’s economic policies and
believe that the United States went too far in Iran. Still, the White
House argues that Trump's previous firm hand with Beijing on tariffs —
which the Supreme Court subsequently struck down — means the U.S. will
remain in a strong position.
“President Trump cares about results, not symbols,” Kelly said. “But
even still, the president has a great relationship with President Xi,
and the upcoming summit in Beijing will be both symbolically and
substantively significant.”
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President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping participate
in a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing,
China, Nov. 9, 2017. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)
Trump and Xi may see a lot of each other this year
Trump could meet with China's leader four times in eight months.
After his visit to Beijing, Trump plans to host Xi at the White
House. Trump might also attend the November Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen, China. And Xi could come to the
Group of 20 summit the following month at Trump’s resort in Doral,
Florida.
Czin noted that Xi also is not very fond of travel, meaning not all
of the planned encounters may happen. He said China's leader also
does not “do personal connections” like the kind Trump relishes,
noting Xi led a Chinese military purge in January that included
replacing officials with long-standing personal ties to his family.
Wyne, though, said Xi also “appreciates that he is unlikely to deal
with another U.S. president who admires him as greatly and embraces
as narrow a view of strategic competition.”
That means Xi may “attempt to pocket as many economic and security
concessions from Trump as possible,” Wyne said.
Trump has long praised Xi
Trump told The Wall Street Journal's editorial board in 2024 that Xi
“was actually a really good … I don’t want to say ‘friend.’ I don’t
want to act foolish. ‘He was my friend.’ But I got along with him
great.”
Trump even suggested at the time that military force might not be
required to ensure that Chinese troops do not encroach on Taiwan,
simply because China’s leader “respects me,” despite Trump more
recently discussing potentially selling arms to Taiwan.
Trump has continued to praise the bilateral relationship since
returning to the White House, even after his Beijing visit,
originally scheduled for March, was postponed due to the early
stages of the Iran war.
He unsuccessfully prodded China to get involved in reopening the
Strait of Hormuz after Iranian forces choked it off and disrupted
global economies. But China did use its leverage as the largest
purchaser of Iranian oil to encourage Iran to agree to what has been
a fragile ceasefire.
The White House says it expects Trump to apply pressure on China
with regards to Iran. Beijing has strong economic ties to Tehran,
and the war could hurt its economy, which was already projected to
grow more slowly. If China can help establish lasting peace, though,
that might boost its standing in negotiations on trade issues with
the Trump administration.
Trade issues a sticking point
During his 2017 visit, Trump announced $250 billion in nonbinding
trade deals, some of which never materialized. A round of trade
deals announced in 2020 and worth $200 billion mostly never came to
fruition before Trump's first term ended.
More recently, Trump’s announcement last year of steep global
tariffs prompted China to cut off purchases of U.S. soybeans and
clamp down on exports of rare earth minerals needed by American
factories.
Tensions have eased somewhat since the U.S. reached a trade truce
last fall that has limited tariffs on both sides. The White House
says there have been more recent discussions about extending the
trade truce, and that both sides support doing so.
Trump “doesn’t travel anywhere without bringing deliverables home to
our country,” according to Kelly. “Americans can expect the
president to deliver more good deals for the United States while in
China,” she said.
____
Associated Press writer E. Eduardo Castillo contributed from Beijing
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