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Ballots cast before election day come from two sources, mail-in
voting and early in-person voting. As of Wednesday, the total
number of in-person votes was about 608,000, while mail ballots
returned totaled about 556,000 – less than half of all requested
mail-in ballots.
In the 2024 presidential election, voters submitted 2.39 million
ballots before election day, according to the State Board of
Elections.
In the 2022 midterm election, Illinois voters cast 1.38 million
ballots early, meaning the state has reached 84% of the 2022
early turnout. Early voting has been open since Sept. 24, only
87% of the full early voting period.
Elmhurst College political science professor Connie Mixon told
The Center Square that early vote numbers won’t provide much
insight into overall voter turnout this year.
“Higher turnout would probably be a good sign for Democrats,”
Mixon said. “I would suspect in terms of turnout for Illinois to
probably be on par for what we normally have been in midterm
elections.”
Compared to other states across the county with more heated
races, like Michigan or Texas, Mixon said Illinois’ turnout
could be lower or average due to the state’s heavy Democratic
party leaning.
“In Illinois, yes, we do have an open Senate seat technically.
But since Illinois leans so Democratic, there hasn't been as
much of a sense of urgency about that race. It's sort of already
assumed that Democrats are going to win,” Mixon said.
Illinois’ early vote totals somewhat resembles Pennsylvania’s,
which has recorded about 933,000 early votes total and also lags
slightly from 2022, with few highly contentious races with
national implications.
Mixon said what she’s watching for from the results of the
election this year isn’t necessarily a Democratic sweep, though
she thinks it is very likely. Instead, she thinks the election
this year is about how much the state’s Congressional delegation
is going to change.
“We have five open congressional seats and this is really
generational change, right? We're losing a lot of members of
Congress who've been there for a long time. Dick Durbin who's
been there for a long time,” Mixon said. “We're switching to a
new generation in the Democratic delegation to Congress. So they
will not have as much power as the more senior leaders did, but
we'll see what they're able to build over time.”
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