Gimmick or giveback? Even some Trump supporters don't expect to get
$5,000 checks after midterms
[October 20, 2026]
By JOSH BOAK, BECKY BOHRER and BILL BARROW
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is hoping that $5,000 checks
can juice Republican turnout in November’s midterm elections — but even
some of his devoted fans are doubting that government payouts would
arrive.
“I mean, I guess it’s good for some people. I really don’t care," said
Jamie Alvarez, who attended Trump's recent Alaska rally in a red, white
and blue outfit. "I don’t feel like your vote should be bought. I feel
like you should vote for who you feel is going to do the best job.”
Joseph Eatherton was attending that same rally and said he was “not sure
if it's necessary." When asked whether Trump could deliver on the
promised money, he said, “I don’t know, and I hate being an armchair
quarterback."
The offering of government checks has become a go-to tactic for Trump
when he faces a political jam. He's previously endorsed $2,000 in
dividends from tariff revenues and large refunds from spending cuts
achieved by the Department of Government Efficiency, neither of which
materialized. The latest example could reveal how much voters still
trust Trump as they decide control of Congress in the midterm elections
on Nov. 3.
Staunch supporters such as Lucy Martinez, the president of a Republican
women's club who attended a recent Trump rally in Texas, said there's no
doubt in their minds.
“I think that I will get the $5,000,” she said. Out of all the
presidents, Trump is someone “who kept his promises to his people and
all the United States.”
Trump has dished out payments as elections approach
However, many voters are already embittered by his economic leadership.
His critics see a president who failed to tame inflation and keep
America out of overseas conflicts, and whose agenda has fueled higher
prices as the war with Iran appears to be at a stalemate.
“The trust on this is already gone for most people,” said Amy
Frederiksen, a former Republican Minnesota Senate majority leader who
now runs a public affairs firm.
“I just don’t see the energy around that line,” she added. “Most people
know that’s a blatant over-the-top promise like several he’s made in the
last couple of years, and they’re not buying it.”
As the midterms approach, Trump has also pledged a $90 payment to 20
million Medicare enrollees and $500 “rebates” for people the
administration says were overcharged for their Obamacare plans. He has
automatically enrolled every U.S. child in “Trump accounts” to invest in
stocks.
The $5,000 payouts would only occur, Trump says, if Republicans keep
their majorities in the House and Senate. Trump acknowledges that the
cost would exceed $1 trillion, but it's not clear that the White House
is seriously engaging with the proposal's ramifications, from the
increased deficit to the likely boost to inflation.
The White House said the payments are possible because of Trump's trade
deals, investment commitments by foreign countries, government stakes in
private companies and deals for oil and minerals.
The administration's position is that the payments will help people
recover from the inflation that began in 2021 under then-President Joe
Biden, though Republicans, at the time, attributed that inflation to
excessive government checks tied to pandemic relief.
When The Associated Press asked several weeks ago if the administration
was modeling the economic impact from the checks, Christopher Phelan,
chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said he would
“refrain” from answering.
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President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally at Heartland
Credit Union Arena, Monday, Oct. 19, 2026, in Park City, Kan. (AP
Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Roughly half of registered voters say Donald Trump does not keep his
promises to Americans, according to an AP-NORC poll from September.
About 3 in 10 say Trump tries to keep his promises but is unable to,
while only about 2 in 10 say he keeps his promises.
Republican voters are more accommodating. About half say Trump tries
to keep his promises but is unable to, and about 4 in 10 say he
keeps his promises.
Republican candidates aren't echoing Trump's promise
Trump is talking about the payments as a sure thing.
“If the Republicans win, you’ll each have $5,000 in your pocket and
economic success for our country like we have never seen before,” he
said at a Saturday rally in Kentucky. “And remember, ’cause they
like to say, ‘Oh, well, maybe he won’t do that.’ Uh, I always do
it.”
Campaign spending tracked by AdImpact suggests that Republicans are
not running advertisements either on television or online about the
promise. The few advertisements that do exist are from
pro-Democratic groups such as Rolling Sea Action Fund that conclude
with the voiceover, “Come on, do you really think he’s sending you a
check? Yeah, right, we won’t get fooled again.”
At a Friday rally in Georgia, Trump noted that he had previously
delivered a $1,776 “Trump dividend” to troops in the military. But
those payments came from a congressionally approved housing
supplement.
Trump claims the nation could not afford the payments if Democrats
hold a chamber in Congress because the nation would be “flat broke.”
But he said that one caveat is that the money could only be spent in
the U.S., rather than in China, Japan or France. He joked that
people should spend the check at his luxury club in Palm Beach,
Florida.
“Let’s have lunch at Mar-a-Lago, where for $5,000, you’ll get one
hamburger and a small dessert,” he told the crowd in Georgia.
Some in the crowd took Trump at his word that he would fight to get
them the money. But they added the caveat that if he didn’t come
through, it would not be his fault.
“I could use $5,000,” said Mike Boatman, a 58-year-old from
Evansville, Indiana, who travels the country attending the
president’s rallies. “I mean, he’s done everything he’s said he’s
going to do.”
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Bohrer reported from Wasilla, Alaska, and Barrow reported from
Dalton, Georgia. Associated Press reporters Aaron Kessler and Linley
Sanders in Washington and Lekan Oyekanmi in San Antonio, Texas,
contributed.
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