CDC finds nearly 1 in 3 US youth have prediabetes, but experts question
scant data
[July 11, 2025]
By JONEL ALECCIA
A new federal estimate shows a rise in prediabetes among American
adolescents, a finding that is spurring concerns about the health of
U.S. children — and the way Trump administration health officials are
conducting research and communicating information, experts said.
In 2023, nearly 1 in 3 U.S. youngsters ages 12 to 17 had prediabetes,
according to recently released data from the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention. That is far higher than a previous estimate that
the condition affects about 1 in 5 kids.
There’s no question that prediabetes in U.S. youth is a serious concern.
The condition puts them at risk for developing Type 2 diabetes, plus
heart disease, stroke and other metabolic problems.
But scientists who study and treat diabetes noted that CDC officials
released only a 600-word online summary of their new findings — not the
raw data nor a peer-reviewed published paper describing how they arrived
at the new figure. The agency also changed the methodology used to
calculate the higher estimate without a detailed explanation.
That underscores questions about the accuracy of information being
released by America’s top public health agency following widespread
staff cuts in recent months, experts said.
“For any of the national health organizations now being decimated by
firings (and) layoffs, I am going to be skeptical of data updates until
there is transparency and clarity on the source of the data and
analysis,” said Christopher Gardner, an expert in diabetes and nutrition
at Stanford University.
The new analysis used “the latest science and technologies” and “the
most updated methodology as science is continually evolving,” said
Melissa Dibble, a CDC spokesperson.
“These new data highlight the magnitude of prediabetes among adolescents
and serve as a critical wake-up call for the nation,” Dibble said in a
statement.
The new analysis relied on the long-running National Health and
Nutrition Examination Survey, which collects information on demographic
and health indicators via interviews, examinations and laboratory
testing.
Prediabetes is a precursor to diabetes, a disease in which sugar builds
up in the blood. Prediabetes is characterized by slightly elevated blood
sugar levels, indicating that a person may progress to developing Type 2
diabetes.
The researchers collected data about blood sugar levels in U.S. youth —
but they also changed the methodology used to analyze the information,
dramatically increasing the estimate of how common prediabetes is.
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 The new analysis concludes that
about 8.4 million U.S. adolescents — or nearly 33% — have
prediabetes. That's up from an estimate of 18% published in a 2020
peer-reviewed paper, which used the previous methodology. If the new
methodology had been applied to that 2005-2016 data, the estimate
would have been about 28%.
The increase from 28% to nearly 33% is not
statistically significant, even though it reflects an apparent rise
in prediabetes among kids, said Steven Kahn, a diabetes researcher
at the UW Medicine in Seattle and editor-in-chief of the journal
Diabetes Care. He said it's concerning that CDC officials provided
such limited information about the new analysis. Such findings
typically have been published in the agency's Morbidity and
Mortality Weekly Report or submitted to a scientific journal for
peer review and publication.
“I would like to believe it doesn't diminish the quality of CDC
data," said Kahn. "However, because there's no raw data to look at,
none of us can look at it to better understand where these numbers
are derived from and what they really mean."
Dr. Samar Hafida, an endocrinologist and representative for the
American Diabetes Association, said the new analysis “wasn't very
transparent,” but she noted that the CDC's updated estimate
generally squares with what doctors are seeing — an increase in
youth with obesity and elevated blood sugar levels that put them at
risk for serious future health problems.
“It could be that maybe the number slightly inflated, but I would
hesitate to dismiss it,” she said.
It remains unclear what proportion of kids with prediabetes will go
on to develop the disease, noted Dr. Dana Dabelea, a researcher who
studies pediatric diabetes at the University of Colorado. Blood
sugar levels can rise in response to developmental changes during
puberty and then resolve later, she said.
Still, confirmed rates of obesity and diabetes among kids are
rising.
The diabetes association recommends that children and adolescents
should be screened for Type 2 diabetes starting at age 10 if they
are overweight or have obesity or another risk factor for the
disease. Focusing on healthy diet, exercise and other lifestyle
factors is key, noted Hafida.
“It's still a call to action," she said. “There will likely be a
surge in early onset Type 2 diabetes that we are not prepared to
deal with.”
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