Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could reach 20,000 cases without strong
public health measures
[June 06, 2026]
By MIKE STOBBE
NEW YORK (AP) — The Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could grow to
20,000 cases or more, depending on how quickly infected people are
isolated to slow the spread, according to a new analysis by U.S. health
officials.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a range of
scenarios generated by computer models Friday, spanning from 10,000
cases to more than 20,000. If accurate, a worst-case scenario could
approach the worst Ebola outbreak in history, the West Africa epidemic
in 2014-2016 — which resulted in more than 28,000 reported cases and
more than 11,000 deaths.
“Without strong public health interventions, the modeling work suggests
an outbreak of that scale is possible,” said Dr. Satish Pillai, incident
manager for the CDC’s Ebola response, in a briefing with reporters.
Jennifer Nuzzo, director of Brown University’s Pandemic Center, said the
modeling “affirms what we have worried about since the beginning: This
outbreak is following dangerous trajectory” if more is not done to stop
the spread of Ebola.
But she cautioned it can be extremely difficult to predict how outbreaks
will progress. “I wouldn’t read too much into the specific numbers. It’s
really hard to make an accurate projection when you have limited data,”
she added.
The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday that
there have been about 400 confirmed cases, including 63 deaths. Experts
say there likely others that haven't been diagnosed or reported.
Viruses that cause Ebola disease spread through contact with bodily
fluids such as vomit, blood and semen. There are no specific treatments
or vaccines for the Bundibugyo virus at the heart of the current
outbreak. The disease is often fatal.
The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global health
emergency in May. Some experts believe infections may have been
occurring in February, but health officials initially tested for a
different kind of Ebola virus.
The outbreak response has been complicated by an armed conflict between
Congo’s government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, as well as
attacks by the Islamic State-affiliated group the Allied Democratic
Force. The violence has caused massive displacement of people living in
the conflict areas, officials say.
Earlier this week, Nuzzo said the risk to the United States seems low.
“I don’t think it’s a scenario that it’s going to come here and spread
broadly,” she told reporters. The CDC echoed that assessment in an
article released Friday.
That's due in part to decisions but the U.S. government to ban the entry
of people without U.S. passports, as well as U.S. green-card holders who
visited Congo, Uganda or South Sudan in the previous 21 days. Also,
people with U.S. passports who traveled to those countries are
undergoing health screenings and being funneled into four receiving
airports.
[to top of second column]
|
A health worker prepares for duty at the Mongbwalu treatment center
in Mongbwalu, Congo, Friday, June 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Moses Sawasawa)
 CDC's modeling report attempts to
project how things might play out, depending on different factors —
including how many infections and deaths have already happened, and
how successful responders are in quickly identifying and isolating
infected people before they can spread the infection to others.
Assuming around 50 people had died and about 20% of infected persons
were successfully isolated by late May, most simulations suggest at
least 20,000 cases and 4,000 deaths will occur in Africa over three
months.
Pillai said the actual isolation rate is unknown but is considered
to be “on the lower end of the scenarios” that CDC modeled.
Higher isolation rates, of 50% or 70%, could result in the number of
cases being more like 10,000, CDC officials said. But if the actual
number of deaths were greater in late May that currently recognized,
that could make the outcomes worse, CDC officials said.
Some CDC modeling during the large Ebola outbreak in West Africa
proved to be way off. The CDC issued modeled numbers in 2014, when
the epidemic was spiraling out of control and international health
officials were quickly trying to build a response.
The CDC estimated that in a worse-case scenario where nothing was
done, as many as 1.4 million people might become infected. That
turned out to be more than 50 times higher than what happened.
___
The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support
from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science
Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely
responsible for all content.
All contents © copyright 2026 Associated Press. All rights reserved |
