China's population falls again as births drop to lowest rate since 1949
communist revolution
[January 19, 2026]
By HUIZHONG WU
BANGKOK (AP) — How do you persuade a population to have more babies
after generations of limiting families to just one?
A decade after ending China's longtime one-child policy, the country's
authorities are pushing a range of ideas and policies to try to
encourage more births — tactics that range from cash subsidies to taxing
condoms to eliminating a tax on matchmakers and day care centers.
The efforts haven't paid off yet. At least, that's what population
figures released Monday show for what is now the world's second-most
populous nation. China's population of 1.4 billion continued to shrink,
marking the fourth straight year of decrease, new government statistics
show. The total population in 2025 stood at 1.404 billion, which was 3
million less than the previous year.
Measured another way, the birth rate in 2025 — 5.63 per 1,000 people —
is the lowest on record since 1949, the year that Mao Zedong’s
Communists overthrew the Nationalists and began running China. Figures
before that, under the previous Nationalist government, were not
available.
China was long the world’s most populous nation until 2023, when it was
surpassed by regional neighbor and sometime rival India. Monday's
statistics illustrate the stark demographic pressures faced by the
country as it tries to pivot from a problem it is working hard to
overcome: status as a nation with a growing but transitional economy
that, as is often said, is “getting old before it gets rich.”
Is a snake involved?
The number of new babies born was just 7.92 million in 2025, a decline
of 1.62 million, or 17%, from the previous year. The latest birth
numbers show that the slight tick upward in 2024 was not a lasting
trend. Births declined for seven years in a row through 2023.
Most families cite the costs and pressure of raising a child in a highly
competitive society as significant hurdles that now loom larger in the
face of an economic downturn that has impacted households struggling to
meet their living costs.
Across the region, “it’s these big structural issues which are much
harder to tackle, whether it’s housing, and work and getting a job and
getting started in life and expectations around education...," said
Stuart Gietel-Basten, director of the Center for Aging Science at the
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. “It’s gonna be difficult
to make a major change in those number of births until those are
addressed.”
Another potential factor in the numbers, at least for 2025: Last year in
China was the year of the snake, considered one of the least favored
years for having a child under the Chinese zodiac. The government's
official Xinhua News Agency, however, did say early last year — perhaps
optimistically — that the snake “is shaking off its negative
connotations.”
Like many other countries in Asia, China has faced a declining fertility
rate, or the average number of babies a woman is expected to have in her
lifetime. While the government does not regularly publish a fertility
rate, last saying it was 1.3 in 2020, experts have estimated it is now
around 1. Both figures are far below the 2.1 rate that would maintain
the size of China's population.
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People carry their toddlers by a toy store in Beijing, Monday, Jan.
19, 2026. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
 For decades, the Chinese government
barred people from having more than one baby and often sanctioned
those who did — a policy that produced more than two generations of
only children. In 2015, the government raised the permitted amount
of offspring to two and then, facing demographic pressure, further
revised the limit to three in 2021.
Economics are behind the decision
The push for more births is about the economy. China now has 323
million people over 60, or 23% of the entire population. That number
has continued to rise, while the working-age population is
shrinking, meaning there are fewer workers to support the older
population.
This demographic shift is happening while China is in the process of
trying to transition away from labor-intensive industries like
farming and manufacturing into a consumer-driven economy built with
high-tech manufacturing.
While China’s rapid development in manufacturing with high-tech and
robotics can reduce the impact of a shrinking labor force, “the
bigger concern is whether economic growth can stay afloat with a
shrinking population,” said Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia
Pacific at French investment bank Natixis.
China reported a 5% annual economic growth for 2025 on Monday, based
on official data. But some analysts expect growth to slow over the
next few years.
To cope with these massive changes, China will eventually need to
reform its pension system, Ng said, as well as broaden the tax base
to cope with the higher government expenditure.
Officials have had limited success with policy changes to
incentivize families to have more children. In July, the government
announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child to families.
Coupling incentives with other attempts to mold behavior, the
government also has started taxing condoms. China removed
contraceptives, including condoms, from a value-added tax exemption
list in 2025, meaning condoms are now being hit with a 13% tax that
kicked into effect Jan. 1.
To further promote child-rearing, kindergartens and daycares have
been added to the tax-exemption list, along with matchmaking
services.
Researchers like Gietel-Basten say that young women want policies,
especially in the workplace, that ensure they are not penalized for
taking time off to have children, and that this is up to private
companies to change. “It shouldn’t be this massive penalty," he
said.
___
Shihuan Chen in Beijing, Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong and Fu Ting in
Washington contributed to this report.
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