Kendrick Lamar, Lady Gaga, K-pop and more: AP predicts who will win at
the 2026 Grammys
[January 24, 2026]
By MARIA SHERMAN and JONATHAN LANDRUM Jr
The competition is fierce. Kendrick Lamar's dominance continues at the
2026 Grammy Awards, where he leads the nominations with nine. He's
followed closely by Lady Gaga, Jack Antonoff and Canadian record
producer/songwriter Cirkut, who boast seven each. Then it's Sabrina
Carpenter, Bad Bunny, Leon Thomas and Serban Ghenea with six.
But who will win? Who will make history at the 68th Grammy Awards on
Feb. 1?
The Associated Press’ Maria Sherman and Jonathan Landrum Jr. break down
the close races for Grammy glory.
Album of the year
“Debí Tirar Más Fotos,” Bad Bunny; “Swag,” Justin Bieber; “Man’s Best
Friend,” Sabrina Carpenter; “Let God Sort Em Out,” Clipse, Pusha T and
Malice; “Mayhem,” Lady Gaga; “GNX,” Kendrick Lamar; “Mutt,” Leon Thomas;
“Chromakopia,” Tyler, the Creator.
SHERMAN: Starting off with the big guns. Last year’s “Cowboy Carter”
victory was long overdue for Beyoncé. That, and an evolving Recording
Academy electorate, is enough to inspire hope that winners may soon be
in sync with the current cultural zeitgeist. But change is slow, and it
is most likely Lady Gaga will be awarded. “Mayhem” is a great album, but
her victory will be more about narrative — recognizing a game-changing
artist with her return-to-form record — instead of who should really win
this year. That's Bad Bunny’s “Debí Tirar Más Fotos.” (Let’s not forget
all Latin Recording Academy members were invited to join the Recording
Academy in 2025, but it is not clear how many can actually vote.) The
world would love to see a Spanish-language album win for the very first
time — Bad Bunny was once again the most streamed artist, globally, on
Spotify last year.
There's also “GNX,” which deserves the victory, as well. But the 2025
ceremony felt like Kendrick Lamar's victory lap, and even with three rap
albums nominated in the top spot, it's not clear whether voters will
give him the recognition he deserves.
LANDRUM: I understand the appeal of a breakthrough narrative here,
especially with such a globally representative field. But this category
tends to land with the project that moved most cleanly across multiple
spaces without explanation. “GNX” stayed active across music, sports and
everyday culture throughout the year. Let’s not forget that songs
“luther” and “Squabble Up” sustained long-term engagement; “TV Off”
entered everyday language with the “Mustard” catchphrase; and “Dodger
Blue” extended the project into sports culture during the Los Angeles
Dodgers’ championship run. Much respect to the other nominees here, but
Lamar delivered a tightly structured album that circulated naturally.
That kind of sustained presence usually carries more weight than
momentum built around a single lane.
Record of the year
“DtMF,” Bad Bunny; “Manchild,” Sabrina Carpenter; “Anxiety,” Doechii;
“Wildflower,” Billie Eilish; “Abracadabra,” Lady Gaga; “luther,”
Kendrick Lamar with SZA; “The Subway,” Chappell Roan; “APT.,” Rosé and
Bruno Mars.
LANDRUM: If one song feels both inescapable and effortless, it’s “APT.”
I look at what songs listeners — especially younger ones including my
soon-to-be 6-year-old — still keep in rotation. The song easily
translates across age groups, platforms and borders. Bruno Mars brought
a proven sense of structure that voters respond to, while Rosé’s
presence reflects the academy’s growing comfort with global pop
influence. If this wins, which I believe will happen, Rosé would become
the first K-pop artist to take the record of the year milestone. I think
it’s time to make history.
SHERMAN: For all of the reasons you've listed above — as well as its
total ubiquity and cultural meshing — “APT.” is the most likely
candidate. But because record of the year is meant to highlight
performance and production (as opposed to song of the year, which
focuses on songwriting and composition), “luther” should win.
Song of the year (songwriter’s award)
“Abracadabra,” Henry Walter, Lady Gaga and Andrew Watt; “Anxiety,”
Jaylah Hickmon; “APT.,” Amy Allen, Christopher Brody Brown, Rogét
Chahayed, Henry Walter, Omer Fedi, Philip Lawrence, Bruno Mars, Chae
Young Park and Theron Thomas; “DtMF,” Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio,
Scott Dittrich, Benjamin Falik, Hugo René Sención and Tyler Thomas Spry;
“Golden,” EJAI and Mark Sonnenblick; “luther,” Jack Antonoff, Roshwita
Larisha Bacha, Matthew Bernard, Ink, Scott Bridgeway, Sam Dew, Kendrick
Lamar, Mark Anthony Spears, Solána Rowe and Kamasi Washington; “Manchild,”
Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter; “Wildflower,” Billie
Eilish O’Connell and Finneas O’Connell.
SHERMAN: There’s no “Not Like Us” this year, but there is a lot of
competition. Billie Eilish and Bruno Mars are back — two established
favorites of Grammy voters — it would be a third win for both in this
category, the most of any artist. And it wouldn’t be wise to count out
the gargantuan “Golden,” though it may be awarded elsewhere. Signs point
to Lady Gaga for this one. She has been nominated in this category four
times with no victories. “Abracadabra” could take it home — and it will
feel more justified than an album of the year win for many.
LANDRUM: I agree. The competition is strong here. But this category
often comes down to precision. And “Abracadabra” is tightly constructed
and intentional, shaped by Lady Gaga’s renewed focus on lyric
construction and melodic intent. That was something we spoke about ahead
of her album. You hear that discipline in the writing itself with every
line pulling its weight.
Best new artist
Olivia Dean; Katseye; The Marias; Addison Rae; sombr; Leon Thomas; Alex
Warren; Lola Young.
LANDRUM: This category increasingly rewards artists who arrive with a
fully formed identity. Leon Thomas separated himself by presenting a
cohesive body of work rather than a moment driven by visibility alone.
“Mutt” reflects songwriting discipline, genre fluency and a clear point
of view shaped by years of experience. That foundation tends to resonate
when voters are thinking long term.
SHERMAN: Points have been made! Thomas is an exemplar candidate. But
there are other factors. If streaming was the ultimate metric, this
would go to “Ordinary” singer Alex Warren. But it rarely is. In this
category, Olivia Dean's name has been uttered the most.
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Kendrick Lamar performs during halftime of the NFL Super Bowl 59
football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia
Eagles, Sunday, Feb. 9, 2025, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Frank
Franklin II, File)
 Best pop duo/group performance
“Defying Gravity,” Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande; “Golden,” HUNTR/X:
EJAE, Audrey Nuna, REI AMI; “Gabriela,” Katseye; “APT.,” Rosé and
Bruno Mars, “30 for 30,” SZA with Kendrick Lamar.
SHERMAN: Three of these nominees could be considered K-pop, or at
the very least, K-pop-adjacent: “Golden,” “APT.,” and “Gabriela.” If
any of them win, it will mark the first time any K-pop act has won
any Grammy — and who wouldn’t want to see that? “Golden” feels most
likely. If the Lamar and SZA song here was “Luther” instead of “30
for 30,” this would be a different conversation.
LANDRUM: For me, this is a toss-up between “Golden” and “APT.” But
I’m going to give a slight nod to “APT.” What sets the song apart is
balance. It also features a voter favorite: Bruno Mars. The
collaboration with him and Rosé feels settled, with neither artist
competing for space. Mars understands how to shape performances that
voters consistently recognize, and Rosé fits seamlessly into that
structure. In this category, cohesion often matters more than
ambition.
Best rap album
“Let God Sort Em Out,” Clipse, Pusha T and Malice; “Glorious,”
GloRilla; “God Does Like Ugly,” JID, “GNX,” Kendrick Lamar, “Chromakopia,”
Tyler, the Creator.
LANDRUM: If I believe “GNX” deserves album of the year, then this
category shouldn’t even be a debate. Same logic would apply to
Tyler, the Creator: You shouldn’t crown the album at the top and
ignore it in its home genre. “GNX” is cohesive, quotable and
culturally dominant without chasing the algorithm. That’s rap at its
highest level.
SHERMAN: It's a no contest pick. “GNX” is more than an album, but a
paragon — and should be awarded as such.
Best contemporary country album
“Patterns,” Kelsea Ballerini; “Snipe Hunter,” Tyler Childers;
“Evangeline vs the Machine,” Eric Church; “Beautifully Broken,”
Jelly Roll; “Postcards from Texas,” Miranda Lambert.
SHERMAN: This year, the Grammys renamed country album to
contemporary country album and added a traditional country album
category, a distinction that exists in other genres. But the news
arrived right after “Cowboy Carter” won best country album,
inspiring backlash online. In this inaugural edition, “contemporary”
seems to mean “country that includes elements of other genres and/or
left-of-center narratives.” In the case of the former, Eric Church’s
inventive country-rock may sway voters over Kelsea Ballerini’s pop
affectations, Jelly Roll’s hip-hop-informed phrasing or Tyler
Childers’ eclecticism.
LANDRUM: Like Jelly Roll said in an interview with Maria, it’s his
time. And I sure do believe him. This album fits the newly defined
category almost too perfectly: emotional, honest, genre-fluid
production and storytelling that connects beyond traditional country
audiences. He expanded this genre, and I believe voters love a
moment that feels both timely and redemptive. This checks both
boxes.
Best R&B Album
“Beloved,” Giveon; “Why Not More?,” Coco Jones; “The Crown,” Ledisi;
“Escape Room,” Teyana Taylor; “Mutt,” Leon Thomas.
LANDRUM: There’s only one album in this category that’s also up for
album of the year, and that matters. “Mutt” distinguished itself
through restraint, allowing songwriting and performance to lead
rather than production excess. This should be a lock … which is
exactly why I’m bracing for voters to surprise me.
SHERMAN: “Mutt” is a clear standout here. As Ty Dolla $ign told AP
in October, “There’s definitely going to be a comeback in R&B very
soon.” And who did he name as its leader? “We’re talking Leon
specifically.”
Best dance/electronic album
“EUSEXUA,” FKA twigs; “Ten Days,” Fred again …; “Fancy That,”
PinkPantheress; “Inhale/Exhale,” Rüfüs du Sol; “F--- U Skrillex You
Think Ur Andy Warhol but UR Not! 3,” Skrillex
SHERMAN: There are a lot of heavyweights in this category: Fred
again …, Rüfüs du Sol, PinkPantheress and more. FKA twigs’ “EUSEXUA”
made a big splash in 2025. But all signs point to Skrillex, one of
the most Grammy-awarded dance/electronic artists, with nine career
wins.
LANDRUM: This field is rich with compelling artistic statements.
What gives Skrillex’s “F--- U Skrillex You Think Ur Andy Warhol but
UR Not! 3" an edge is direction. It pushes sound forward while
maintaining structure. That balance between experimentation and
clarity has historically resonated with voters in this category.
Best Latin pop album
“Cosa Nuestra,” Rauw Alejandro; “Bogotá (Deluxe),” Andrés Cepeda; “Tropicoqueta,”
Karol G; “Cancionera,” Natalia Lafourcade; “¿Y ahora qué?,”
Alejandro Sanz.
SHERMAN: This trophy is likely headed to Natalia Lafourcade or
Alejandro Sanz, who took home record of the year at the 2025 Latin
Grammys a few months ago. Even though this is a pop category, I
sense voters will go traditional. The Latin categories at the
Grammys often reflect the top winners at the Latin Grammys, too.
LANDRUM: There’s a strong case for tradition in this field, but
“Tropicoqueta” reflects forward movement. Karol G operates with
clear creative authority here, balancing accessibility with cultural
specificity. When voters meet the moment rather than default to
familiarity, this type of project tends to stand out.
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