Analysis shows Trump's tariffs would cost US employers $82.3 billion
[July 03, 2025] By
JOSH BOAK
WASHINGTON (AP) — An analysis finds a critical group of U.S. employers
would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s
current tariff plans, a sum that could potentially be managed through
price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins.
The analysis by the JPMorganChase Institute is among the first to
measure the direct costs created by the import taxes on businesses with
$10 million to $1 billion in annual revenue, a category including
roughly a third of private-sector U.S. workers. These companies are more
dependent than other businesses on imports from China, India and
Thailand — and the retail and wholesale sectors would be especially
vulnerable to the import taxes being levied by the Republican president.
The findings show clear trade-offs from Trump’s import taxes,
contradicting his claims foreign manufacturers would absorb the costs of
the tariffs instead of U.S. companies that rely on imports. While the
tariffs launched under Trump have yet to boost overall inflation, large
companies such as Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma delayed
the potential reckoning by building up their inventories before the
taxes could be imposed.

The analysis comes just ahead of the July 9 deadline by Trump to
formally set the tariff rates on goods from dozens of countries. Trump
imposed that deadline after the financial markets panicked in response
to his April tariff announcements, prompting him to schedule a 90-day
negotiating period when most imports faced a 10% baseline tariff. China,
Mexico and Canada face higher rates, and there are separate 50% tariffs
on steel and aluminum.
Had the initial April 2 tariffs stayed in place, the companies in the
JPMorganChase Institute analysis would've faced additional direct costs
of $187.6 billion. Under the current rates, the $82.3 billion would be
equivalent on average to $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average
annual payroll. Those averages include firms that don't import goods and
those that do.
Asked Tuesday how trade talks are faring, Trump said simply:
“Everything’s going well.”
The president has indicated he'll set tariff rates given the logistical
challenge of negotiating with so many nations. As the 90-day period
comes to a close, only the United Kingdom has signed a trade framework
with the Trump administration. Trump announced Wednesday he'd reached a
deal with Vietnam, while India has signaled it's close to agreeing on a
trade framework.
[to top of second column] |
 Trump said on his social media site
Vietnam will pay the U.S. a 20% tariff on all goods sent “into our
Territory” and a 40% tariff on any transshipping, which usually
means exports that come from China but pass through Vietnam to dodge
tariffs on Chinese goods.
In return, Vietnam will grant the U.S. “TOTAL ACCESS” to its market
for trade, Trump said, meaning “we will be able to sell our product
into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff.” He added he thinks SUVs “will be a
wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam.”
There's a growing body of evidence suggesting more inflation could
surface. The investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report it
expects companies to pass 60% of their tariff costs onto consumers.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve has used its survey of businesses’
inflation expectations to say companies could on average pass along
roughly half their costs from a 10% tariff or a 25% tariff without
reducing consumer demand.
The JPMorganChase Institute findings suggest the tariffs could cause
some domestic manufacturers to strengthen their roles as suppliers
of goods. But it noted companies need to plan for a range of
possible outcomes and wholesalers and retailers already operate on
such low profit margins they might need to spread the tariffs' costs
to their customers.
The outlook for tariffs remains highly uncertain. Trump had stopped
negotiations with Canada, only to restart them after the country
dropped its plan to tax digital services. He similarly on Monday
threatened more tariffs on Japan unless it buys more rice from the
U.S.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox News Channel’s “Fox &
Friends” on Tuesday the concessions from the trade talks have
impressed career officials at the Office of the U.S. Trade
Representative and other agencies.
The treasury secretary said the Trump administration plans to
discuss the contours of trade deals next week, prioritizing the tax
cuts package passed on Tuesday by the Republican majority in the
Senate. Trump has set a Friday deadline for passage of the
multitrillion-dollar package, the costs of which the president hopes
to offset with tariff revenues.
All contents © copyright 2025 Associated Press. All rights reserved |