China's trade surplus surges 20% to a record $1.2 trillion, even with
Trump's tariffs
[January 14, 2026] By
CHAN HO-HIM
HONG KONG (AP) — China’s trade surplus surged to a record of almost $1.2
trillion in 2025, the government said Wednesday, as exports to other
countries made up for slowing shipments to the U.S. under President
Donald Trump's onslaught of higher tariffs.
China's exports rose 5.5% for the whole of last year to $3.77 trillion,
customs data showed, as Chinese automakers and other manufacturers
expanded into markets across the globe. Imports flatlined at $2.58
trillion. The 2024 trade surplus was over $992 billion.
In December, China’s exports climbed 6.6% from the year before in dollar
terms, better than economists’ estimates and higher than November’s 5.9%
year-on-year increase. Imports in December were up 5.7% year-on-year,
compared to November’s 1.9%.
China’s trade surplus surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time
in November, when the trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion in the first
11 months of last year.
Economists expect exports will continue to support China’s economy this
year, despite trade friction and geopolitical tensions.
“We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026,”
said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.
While China’s exports to the U.S. fell sharply after Trump returned to
office and escalated his trade war with the world’s second-largest
economy, that decline has been largely offset by shipments to other
markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.
For the whole of 2025, China’s exports to the U.S. fell 20%. In
contrast, exports to Africa surged 26%. Those to Southeast Asian
countries jumped 13%; to the European Union 8%, and to Latin America,
7%.
Strong global demand for computer chips and other devices and the
materials needed to make them were among categories that supported
China’s exports, analysts said.
Exports of electronics and electrical equipment were by far the largest
export category, rising 8.4% from a year earlier.
Car exports also grew last year. Auto exports surged 21% in 2025 to more
than 7 million units, driven by electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids,
according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, an
industry group, on Wednesday.
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Aerial view of a container terminal in Nanjing in eastern China's
Jiangsu province, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026. (Chinatopix Via AP)
 China also exported more grain and
fertilizer, while its sales of furniture, shoes and other labor
intensive products fell.
Strong exports have helped keep China's economy growing at an annual
rate close to its official target of about 5%. That has triggered
alarm in countries that fear a flood of cheap imports is damaging
local industries.
China faces a “severe and complex” external trade environment in
2026, Wang Jun, vice minister of China’s customs administration,
told reporters in Beijing. But he said China’s “foreign trade
fundamentals remain solid.”
The head of the International Monetary Fund last month called for
China to fix its economic imbalances and speed up its shift from
reliance on exports by boosting domestic demand and investment.
A prolonged property downturn in China after the authorities cracked
down on excessive borrowing, triggering defaults by many developers,
is still weighing on consumer confidence and domestic demand.
China’s leaders have made increasing spending by consumers and
businesses a focus of economic policy, but actions taken so far have
had a limited impact. That included government trade-in subsidies
over the past months that encouraged consumers to buy newer, more
energy efficient items, such as home appliances and vehicles.
“We expect domestic demand growth to stay tepid,” said Rong of BNP
Paribas. “In fact, the policy boost to domestic demand looks weaker
than last year -- in particular the fiscal subsidy program for
consumer goods.”
In the case of autos, domestic sales rose 6% in 2025, but they fell
back toward the end of the year as those subsidies were scaled back
or phased out in some areas.
Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis,
forecasts that China’s exports will grow about 3% in 2026, less than
the 5.5% growth in 2025. With slow import growth, he expects China's
trade surplus to remain above $1 trillion this year.
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