Iran war sends shockwaves through African fuel market and economies
[March 09, 2026] By
ALLAN OLINGO
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Surging oil prices triggered by the war with Iran
are rippling across African economies, threatening higher fuel costs,
rising inflation and renewed pressure on currencies across the
continent.
Africa imports most of the petroleum products it consumes, leaving many
economies highly vulnerable to supply disruptions tied to tensions in
the Middle East, a region central to global oil flows.
“Africa is a net importer of oil products, meaning it is heavily exposed
to shocks like these,” said Nick Hedley, an energy transition research
analyst at Zero Carbon Analytics.
When global oil supplies tighten, Nedley said, prices rise while African
currencies often weaken as investors move funds into safe-haven assets
such as the U.S. dollar.
That combination amplifies the impact of price spikes in
import-dependent markets such as Kenya and Ghana.
A similar dynamic unfolded after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine
in 2022, when rising crude prices and a weakening currency pushed
transport fuel prices in South Africa up by more than 25% within six
months, Hedley said.
“The near-term risks come from mainly the rising oil prices and
weakening exchange rates as investors move to safe-haven assets,” said
Oxford Economics senior economist Brendon Verster.
Oil markets remain particularly sensitive to the conflict because of the
strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping corridor
through which about a fifth of the world’s crude passes.
The impact of higher oil prices across Africa will be uneven.
Countries like Kenya and Uganda say their supply remain stable even as
they work on ensuring continuity. Nigeria and Ghana produce crude oil
but import most of their refined petroleum products, limiting the
benefits to them of higher global prices.
“It’s difficult to say at this point whether they will see net gains,”
Hedley said. “Oil producers could benefit from higher crude prices, but
ordinary citizens will likely face higher transport and fuel costs, and
potentially higher interest rates.”
Still, sustained high prices could bring a windfall for Africa’s major
oil exporters. Verster noted that Nigeria exports roughly 1.5 million
barrels of oil per day and has based its medium-term fiscal framework on
oil prices between $64 and $66 per barrel through 2028.
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The sun sets behind a plume of smoke rising after a U.S.–Israeli
military strike in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid
Salemi)
 The war pushed prices above $100 per
barrel Monday, a level that if sustained, would significantly boost
revenues for exporters including Angola, Algeria and Libya.
For most African households, however, the immediate effect is likely
to be higher living costs.
“This is a serious concern,” Hedley said, noting that most food and
goods across Africa are transported by road. “Rising fuel costs
therefore feed quickly into broader inflation and reduce household
purchasing power.”
Peter Attard Montalto, managing director at South African advisory
firm Kruthan said the crisis is also testing African economies.
“So far the impact has really been muted, for countries like South
Africa,” he said, noting that recent economic reforms have helped
stabilize the country’s currency and bond markets.
“Still, higher oil and gas prices are expected to filter into
inflation in the coming months,” Montalto said.
Countries already operating under programs from the International
Monetary Fund could face additional strain as energy import bills
drain scarce foreign exchange reserves. Among the most vulnerable,
analysts warn are Sudan, The Gambia, Central African Republic,
Lesotho and Zimbabwe.
Over the longer term, analysts say the crisis may reinforce calls
for African nations to diversify their energy systems and reduce
dependence on imported fuels.
“It makes strategic sense for African countries to ensure long-term
energy security and sovereignty,” said Kennedy Mbeva, a research
associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the
University of Cambridge.
Achieving that, Mbeva said, will require balancing short-term fiscal
pressures with long-term investments in clean energy and green
industrialization.
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