Africa wants more homegrown solar to boost self-reliance, but China's
shadow remains
[August 08, 2026] By
ALLAN OLINGO and CHAN HO-HIM
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Africa’s largest economies are accelerating plans
to build more domestic solar manufacturing capacity, a shift industry
analysts say reflects both industrial ambition and growing unease over
dependence on imports from China that dominate the global market.
Ethiopia, South Africa, Morocco and Nigeria have been stepping up
efforts to localize manufacturing of equipment for solar power, from
module assembly to more advanced manufacturing, according to industry
experts.
However, they say China is likely to retain its dominant global role in
making solar cells and other components. Its exports of such equipment
have soared, partly due to a glut in supply back home.
Chinese renewable energy investment and related construction projects in
Africa reached $66 billion between 2010 and 2024, according to the think
tank ODI Global.
“Growing economies, coupled with recent energy shortages in countries
like Zambia and the ongoing need to provide access to underserved
populations, make it (Africa) a perfect market for China to channel its
overcapacity in the sector,” said Olena Borodyna, a senior geopolitical
risk advisor with the London-based think tank.
Africa eyes solar production
Africa's largest economies are keen to build their own solar
manufacturing capacity.
South Africa's utility, Eskom, plans to develop a 1-gigawatt solar
manufacturing facility to capture more value from its fast-expanding
solar market and respond to changing electricity demand.
Production of solar panels in Nigeria, meanwhile, is expanding rapidly,
with local assembly capacity rising from about 120 megawatts to roughly
300 megawatts in the last two years. Its annual solar imports, mostly
from China, also put it near South Africa’s level.
The homegrown manufacturing push is tied to structural shifts in
Africa’s power markets. Rising adoption of rooftop and distributed solar
systems in South Africa is reducing national grid demand, squeezing
utilities’ revenues and prompting interest in diversification.
South Africa is already the continent’s largest importer of solar
equipment, bringing in more than 3 gigawatts annually, also largely from
China. Industry analysts say this scale of demand makes it one of the
continent’s strongest candidates for localized production.
African power markets shift
The increased interest in solar power represents a significant shift,
said Benjamin Clarke, policy director at the Africa Solar Industry
Association, even if actual manufacturing capacity remains limited. He
said nations pursuing solar manufacturing tend to already have
industrial capacity and strong domestic demand.
“Morocco has doubled production to around 1 gigawatt a year. South
Africa maintains a similar capacity. Egypt has gigawatt-scale projects
coming online,” he said.
“A few years ago, local solar manufacturing was barely on the agenda
anywhere in Africa,” Clarke said “It is now becoming a recognized pillar
of industrial policy and green economic development.”
The need for more solar or other renewable power has soared. The
industry group GOGLA estimates that more than 10 million solar kits were
sold across Africa in 2025, serving roughly 148 million people. This was
a 10% increase compared to 2024, with much of that growth concentrated
in East and West Africa.
The solar build-out is within a highly concentrated global supply chain
dominated by China. Africa has effectively no commercial-scale solar
cell manufacturing, meaning emerging assembly plants still must rely on
imported Chinese components.
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Solar panels cover the parking lot of Garden City Mall in Nairobi,
Kenya, July 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Andrew Kasuku, File)
 “Most new factories assemble
imported Chinese components rather than produce the high-value solar
cells and other upstream materials, leaving Africa dependent on
foreign technology for the most sophisticated parts of the supply
chain,” Clarke said.
Technology transfer remains limited
China’s investment is helping Africa build manufacturing capacity
and technical skills.
It's a vital opportunity for technology transfer and job creation,
ODI Global’s Borodyna said, “given China’s expertise in building out
these technologies at scale.”
“China will play a huge role in the build-out of manufacturing
capacity across the continent, as well as continue solar exports to
the continent," she said.
Experts say the continent has yet to receive the deeper sharing of
knowhow needed to develop its own fully integrated solar industry.
Reliance on China for solar supply is likely to remain high in
regions including Africa, said Hannah Pitt, with the think tank
Rhodium Group’s energy and climate practice.
Trade restrictions in the U.S. and Europe have led Chinese companies
to invest more in other regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia,
according to Rhodium Group. Ethiopia is a favored destination, with
more than half of the announced investments since 2018 coming from
Chinese sources, alongside Japanese investments.
Investments in South Africa, Nigeria and Morocco were mostly led by
domestic companies or joint ventures with local participation, the
think tank said.
Saturated Chinese markets push solar manufacturing overseas
Extensive state support and years of steady investments in green
technology manufacturing have resulted in an oversupply of solar
power equipment and falling prices in China, a key factor in its
huge global market share, said Lauri Myllyvirta with the Centre for
Research on Energy and Clean Air.
With the market oversupplied, several major Chinese solar
manufacturers, including Longi and Jinko, made losses in the first
three months of 2026. For such companies, shifting overseas may be
the only way to stay in business.
Chinese firms pledged as much as $250 billion in overseas green
manufacturing projects between 2011 and the first half of last year,
according to an estimate by Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab’s
“China’s Green Leap Outward” report.
Chinese solar exports doubled in March reaching a new monthly
record, as 50 countries set all-time records for Chinese solar
imports in a single month, according to Ember, a think tank.
“In terms of producing and manufacturing things — like solar panels,
batteries, electric vehicles — really China is by far the lead in
this race,” said Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy
Institute’s China Climate Hub. “I personally expect the dominance of
China to be further cemented and not weakened over the coming
years.”
___
Chan reported from Hong Kong. Associated Press journalist Anton L.
Delgado contributed from Bangkok.
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