Polymarket is in a high-stakes race to win back trust as it recommits to
the US market
[July 09, 2026] By
KEN SWEET
NEW YORK (AP) — After four years in exile, the prediction market
platform Polymarket has begun a well-funded campaign to sell a new
version of itself to the American public.
To do so, the company is trying to convince policymakers, regulators,
the public and prospective customers that the business it is building
onshore is a more disciplined operation than the freewheeling offshore
exchange that has at times been the subject of unfavorable headlines.
Polymarket has hired social media influencers to produce viral marketing
on TikTok and other platforms. Its account on X, formerly known as
Twitter, is now followed by millions and posts about current events
throughout the day. It has signed partnership deals with major sports
teams and Major League Baseball, as well as news organizations ranging
from CNBC to CNN. It's all part of a pitch that its real-time markets
are a more accurate read on the future than traditional polling or
punditry.
The campaign is, effectively, an effort to sell Polymarket as something
different from the Polymarket people know today.
What the American public knows as Polymarket has, at least by the letter
of the law, been unavailable to Americans. In 2022, it was pushed
offshore after settling federal charges that it operated an unregistered
derivatives market. But Americans have regularly found ways around the
prohibition, and the offshore business faced criticism over allegations
of insider trading and allowing wagers tied to war and other violence.
Polymarket's push into the U.S. means Americans now have legal access to
Polymarket through their U.S. platform, albeit it will be limited
access. It adds another competitor to the U.S. prediction market
industry, now dominated by Kalshi, and also featuring Robinhood and
others offering similar services.
Polymarket began operating again in the U.S. at the end of 2025 after
buying the derivatives exchange QCEX to get the regulatory license to
operate in the country. Executives say the U.S. exchange is walled off
from the international platform, and they have hired a slate of
compliance, surveillance and regulatory specialists in recent weeks to
keep it that way.
“Trust is the product we are building here,” said Dan Lee, head of U.S.
operations at Polymarket, in an interview. Lee started with Polymarket
in February from Coinbase.
Among the hires, the company added Megan McGrath from Robinhood as its
new chief compliance officer. Lee and another executive, Natalie Oblazny,
were hired from Coinbase. It’s also hired former Department of Justice
and FBI officials as the platform’s head of enforcement and new
surveillance head. Lee said Polymarket’s successful reentry into the
U.S. depends almost entirely on whether it can convince people that
Polymarket U.S. can be a trusted prediction market platform, and the new
hires are key to that effort.
Both Polymarket International and Polymarket U.S. provide the same
service: trading on the likelihood of events, such as weather, sports,
politics or news. But the underlying structures differ. Polymarket’s
international platform is built on blockchain technology and requires
users to trade with cryptocurrency, while Polymarket U.S. operates
through a more centralized structure regulated by the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission and funded with traditional U.S. dollars.
Customers using Polymarket U.S. versus Polymarket International won't
notice the difference, with the exception of how they fund their
accounts. Also Polymarket U.S. is going to have a much narrower number
of contracts, and more regulations, than its international counterpart.
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The prediction market app Polymarket is displayed on a mobile phone,
April 16, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley, File)
 “Polymarket U.S. is supposed to
comply with U.S. law and regulations. Polymarket International is
where anything goes,” said Todd Phillips, who has written
extensively on prediction markets at the Roosevelt Institute.
The stakes are high for Polymarket. Between its
departure in 2022 and return six months ago, the prediction market
industry has changed and grown in popularity. The trading volume
across the platforms for Polymarket and rival Kalshi is now $26.6
billion, according to blockchain analytics firm Dune. That’s up from
$9.75 billion in volume across the platforms in October last year.
About two-thirds of that activity is on Kalshi, which dominates the
U.S. market on the strength of sports wagering. Kalshi was valued at
$22 billion in its most recent funding round.
Both platforms are also benefiting from a more favorable treatment
of the industry in Washington. The Trump Administration has been
generally supportive of prediction markets. The CFTC has sued states
to argue that federal law should preempt any regulations that state
politicians have wanted to place on the prediction market industry.
The president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is also an investor in
Polymarket through his venture capital firm 1789 Capital.
Even so, it’s been a rough start for Polymarket’s reintroduction to
American audiences. The Wall Street Journal found evidence that
Polymarket’s advertising and marketing campaigns used allegedly
deceptive strategies that showed hired influencers making money
trading on Polymarket when the trades were fake.
Politico reported in June that a Polymarket executive paid at least
20 political content creators, many of which did not disclose those
partnerships to the public. Both projects have been part of the
campaign Polymarket was using to reintroduce to American audiences.
In response to the WSJ and Politico reports, the company says it is
investigating its marketing and promotional campaigns.
It's too soon to tell whether Polymarket U.S. will be able to
differentiate itself from its international counterpart.
Polymarket’s international platform has made headlines, often to
public and political outrage.
When a U.S. Army sergeant was indicted earlier this year over bets
on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, he was
trading on Polymarket’s international platform. The Associated Press
reported in April that 50 brand new accounts on Polymarket’s
international platform placed substantial bets on a U.S.-Iran
ceasefire in the hours, even minutes, before President Donald Trump
announced a ceasefire on social media, raising concerns of insider
trading.
Lee said he believes the steps the U.S. business is taking will help
further legitimize it, despite the issues the international platform
has faced.
“I think having the international business being the bulk of the
volume, it often sort of masks the progress we are making here in
the U.S. to broaden Polymarket’s acceptance,” Lee said.
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