The war in Iran sparks a global fertilizer shortage and threatens food
prices
[March 27, 2026] By
ANIRUDDHA GHOSAL and ALLAN OLINGO
HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Farmers around the world are feeling the squeeze
of the Iran war. Gas prices have shot up and fertilizer supplies are
waning due to Tehran's near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz in
retaliation for U.S. and Israeli bombing.
The fertilizer shortage is putting the livelihood of farmers in
developing countries — already troubled by rising temperatures and
erratic weather systems — further at risk, and could lead to people
everywhere paying more for food.
The poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere rely on fertilizer
imports from the Gulf, and the shortage comes just as planting season
begins, said Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food
Program.
“In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next
season. In the best case, higher input costs will be included in food
prices next year.”
Baldev Singh, a 55-year-old rice farmer in Punjab, India, says
smallholders — the bulk of the country's farmers — may not survive if
the government cannot subsidize fertilizers when demand peaks in June.
“Right now, we are waiting and hoping,” he said.
The war halts supplies of key nutrients
Iran is seriously limiting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a
narrow passage that usually handles about a fifth of the world’s oil
shipments and nearly a third of global fertilizer trade.
Nitrogen and phosphate — two major fertilizer nutrients — are under
immediate threat from the blockade.
Supplies of nitrogen including urea, the most widely traded fertilizer
that helps plants grow and boosts yields, are the hardest hit because of
shipping delays and the soaring price of liquefied natural gas — an
essential ingredient.
The conflict has restricted about 30% of global urea trade, said Chris
Lawson of CRU Group, a London-based commodities consultancy.
Some countries are already facing critical shortages, according to Raj
Patel, a food systems economist at the University of Texas. For example,
Ethiopia gets over 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer from the Gulf through
Djibouti, a supply route that was strained even before the war began in
February.
“The planting season is now,” Patel said. “The fertilizer isn’t there.”
Phosphate supplies, which support root development, are also under
pressure. Saudi Arabia produces about a fifth of the world’s phosphate
fertilizer, and the region exports more than 40% of the world's sulfur,
a key ingredient and byproduct of oil and gas refining, Lawson said.
Even after the war ends, producers in the Gulf would need clear security
guarantees before resuming shipments through the strait, and insurance
costs would almost certainly rise, said Owen Gooch, an analyst with
London-based Argus Consulting Services.
In India, the government has prioritized urea supplies for domestic use
and provides fertilizer manufacturers with about 70% of their natural
gas needs. Some plants are still running below capacity, leading to
lower output.
“The food system is fragile, and it depends on stable fertilizer supply
chains to ensure farmers can produce the food the world relies on,” said
Hanna Opsahl-Ben Ammar of Yara International, one of the world’s largest
fertilizer companies.
Shortages hit at a critical time
Fertilizers are generally applied just before or at planting, so crops
miss key early growth stages and yields can fall when deliveries are
delayed, even if supplies improve later.
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A bag of fertilizer is ready to be used on Elizabeth Wangua's land
in Limuru, Kenya Wednesday, March 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Jackson Njehia)
 The impact is already being felt in
the United States and Europe, where the main planting season is
underway, and it is expected to hit the first planting season in
much of Asia in the coming months.
“Our crops out in the field need nitrogen now — the sooner the
better — so they can get off to a good start, helping them establish
themselves and build up reserves for the harvest later this summer,”
said Dirk Peters, an agricultural engineer who runs a farm outside
Berlin.
Fertilizer prices are below the peaks seen after Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine, but grain prices were higher then, helping farmers
absorb the costs, said Joseph Glauber of the International Food
Policy Research Institute. Grain prices are lower now meaning
margins are tighter and farmers may have to switch to less
fertilizer-intensive crops — such as soybeans in the U.S. — or apply
less fertilizer, reducing yields. Lower yields can lead to higher
consumer prices.
Other nations likely won't make up the shortfall. China, the world’s
largest producer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, is
prioritizing domestic supply, and urea shipments probably won't
resume until May, Lawson said. Plants in Russia, another major
producer, are already running near full capacity, he said.
Developing nations are vulnerable
The disruptions are already being felt across Africa, where many
farmers rely on fertilizer imported from the Middle East and Russia.
Early heavy rains in East Africa have left farmers with about a week
of dry weather to prepare fields and apply fertilizer, said Stephen
Muchiri, a Kenya maize farmer and CEO of the Eastern African Farmers
Federation, which represents 25 million smallholders.
Fertilizer shortages and price hikes hit farmers hard, forcing them
to use less and leading to reduced yields. Even short delays can
reduce maize yields by about 4% in a season, Patel said, citing
research from Zambia.
Governments can intervene by applying subsidies, promoting domestic
production and controlling exports.
India already subsidizes fertilizer to ease the financial strain on
farmers, but those subsidies leave less money for long-term farming
investments. It has budgeted $12.7 billion this year for urea
subsidies alone, according to the U.S.-based Institute for Energy
Economics and Financial Analysis.
Efforts to produce domestic urea have increased India's dependence
on imported gas, and excessive urea use has harmed local soil, said
Purva Jain of IEEFA, who supports the use of organic fertilizers.
Less reliance on imported fertilizers could protect farmers and
consumers from energy price swings and climate shocks, said Oliver
Oliveros, executive coordinator of the Agroecology Coalition.
“This could be a turning point,” he said.
___
Olingo reported from Nairobi, Kenya. Associated Press writer Jamey
Keaten in Geneva and Kerstin Sopke in Berlin contributed.
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