Already under financial pressure, Midwest soybean farmers are squeezed
further by tariffs, Iran war
[April 13, 2026] By
ERIC FERKENHOFF, Lee Enterprises and JOSH KELETY
WAHOO, Neb. (AP) — Strong winds whipped around Doug Bartek, a
fifth-generation farmer, as he headed into a grain bin to shovel
soybeans onto a conveyor chute. The 60-year-old was anxious at the onset
of the spring planting season, rattling off the long list of issues
affecting his family’s livelihood at their 2,000-acre farm near Wahoo,
Nebraska.
The high cost of fuel, equipment, and fertilizer — compounded by the
Iran war — and also tariffs, perceived “price gouging” by suppliers, and
low soybean prices driven by a global supply glut. All of it weighs on
Bartek, who is chairman of the Nebraska Soybean Association.
“Our biggest struggles are our inputs, be it fertilizer, seed, chemical,
parts,” Bartek said. “There has been so much drastic markup in all of
these. And I just kind of feel like the farmer’s kind of painted in the
corner.”
Bartek’s concerns are shared by many Midwest soybean producers. Costs,
such as equipment, have crept up over time while soybean prices have
stayed low. Tariffs levied by the Trump administration last year and the
resulting monthslong trade war with China only made things worse, they
say. Then the Iran war bottled up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,
restricting global fertilizer supplies and sending fertilizer prices sky
high. A ceasefire deal announced April 7 raised hope that bottlenecks in
the strait would abate, but the future of the agreement was uncertain.
“A lot of producers are pretty nervous going into this year,” said
Justin Sherlock, a soybean farmer and president of the North Dakota
Soybean Growers Association. “It looks like we’re going to have another
year of negative returns.”
Years of rising costs, low soybean prices
Soybeans, which are used for livestock feed, food and biofuels, are
among the top U.S. agricultural exports. That hasn’t always been the
case. Before the 1960s soybeans weren’t a major crop in the U.S,
according to Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State
University. It wasn’t until the 1990s that soybean production
accelerated due to international demand — primarily from China — and
soybeans and corn are now dominant in U.S. agriculture.
But U.S. soybean farmers, who typically also grow corn, have been facing
financial issues for years even before the onset of the Iran war.
Soybean prices have been persistently low in recent years. The global
market has been awash in soybeans, driven in part by Brazil, which
surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest soybean producer years ago.
“If we look at global soybean production over the past several years, it
continues to set record, after record, after record,” Hart said.
“There’s been just large supplies globally, and that has led to
depressed prices.”
Meanwhile, Midwest soybean farmers’ costs have risen. Overall farm
production expenses, including seed and pesticide, have increased over
time, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Operating costs
for soybean production have stayed elevated since 2020 and are projected
to increase again in 2026, according to the agency.
The cost of land also is a major issue for farmers, experts say. Midwest
crop land values have increased. And most regional farmers rent some of
their land, according to Joana Colussi, research assistant professor in
the department of agricultural economics at Purdue University.
Bartek, who rents three-quarters of his land, said landowners are
increasing rents, causing further financial strain.
“There’s a lot of what I call absentee landowners that have absolutely
no idea what goes on on the farm,” he said. “All they know is their
taxes went up and you get to make up the difference, some way, somehow.”
“They’re very concerned about negative margins driven by low prices and
high cost,” said Paul Mitchell, a professor of agricultural and applied
economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, of farmers. “There’s
just a liquidity cash crunch for a lot of them and they’re just trying
to figure out how to deal with everything.”
The number of farms in the U.S. has shrunk over time and consolidation
in farming is a long-term trend, though farmers’ financial pressures
wrought by high input costs and low commodity prices have contributed,
Hart said. Larger farms tend to be more competitive and depend on large,
expensive machinery.
“The financial reserves need(ed) on a farm are much greater than they
used to be,” Hart said. “We’re a bit more sensitive to the financial
conditions these days because so much capital is being utilized within
the farm business.”
Tariffs, trade war have lasting impacts
Market forces aren’t the only issue weighing on farmers. Sweeping
tariffs levied by President Donald Trump in April 2025 exacerbated a
trade war with China, the top buyer of U.S. soybeans. China responded
with retaliatory tariffs and effectively boycotted U.S. soybeans,
cutting off a major export market for Midwest farmers and driving the
price of soybeans even lower.
“When that was announced and soybean prices basically collapsed, if you
could afford to hold on to your beans and wait for better times, you
were OK,” said Mike Cerny, a soybean, and winter wheat corn farmer in
Sharon, Wisconsin. “If you had a mortgage due or payments due or cash
flow needs and you had to sell at that point, you were taking it pretty
rough.”
The U.S. and China eventually reached a deal in late 2025. Beijing
committed to buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans by January and at
least 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years. China
has since met its initial soybean purchase goal and the Trump
administration also rolled out a $12 billion temporary aid package in
December to boost farmers affected by the trade war.
[to top of second column] |
Dalton Bartek works a field to prepare for planting soybeans on his
family's farm near Wahoo, Neb., on Monday, April 6, 2026. (AP
Photo/Charlie Riedel)
 But the damage is already done,
experts and farmers say. While China’s renewed purchases and the
federal payments are helping, it’s not enough to recover farmers’
losses. Even after federal assistance, farmers still lost almost $75
per harvested acre of soybeans in the 2025 crop, according to the
American Soybean Association. And the trade war further pushed China
toward competing soybean exporters, such as Brazil — accelerating a
trend of declining U.S. soybean exports to China.
“When China decided to stop purchasing, we couldn’t find enough
other markets to replace those sales,” Hart said. “We’re still
feeling the impacts today. When you look at where soybean exports
are today versus where we would normally expect them to be, we’re
still running anywhere from 15% to 20% behind normal.”
Joseph Glauber, former chief economist at the Department of
Agriculture between 2008 and 2014, said global competitors to U.S.
soybean farmers gained from the trade war.
“When China has put on tariffs against the U.S. they’ve tended to
buy then from Brazil or Argentina, largely Brazil,” Glauber added.
“We’re not nearly as dominant in the world as we used to be in terms
of the global export market for soybeans.”
Iran war drove up fuel, fertilizer costs
After the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, a severe
slowdown in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sent the
price of oil soaring. The shipping disruption also largely stopped
the export of nitrogen fertilizers manufactured in the Persian Gulf
and limited access to key fertilizer ingredients. The price of urea,
the most widely traded nitrogen fertilizer, skyrocketed.
Soybeans don’t require nitrogen fertilizer, but it’s vital for corn
and most soybean farmers also grow corn. About half the global
supply of urea comes from the Middle East, and Qatar and Saudi
Arabia are two of the top sources of U.S. fertilizer imports,
according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire last week that
included reopening the strait of Hormuz, but traffic remained slowed
amid disagreements over Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and the price of
urea remains elevated.
Many Midwest farmers bought their fertilizer well in advance of the
spring planting season. But some farmers who didn’t buy early face
elevated prices. Dave Walton, a corn, soybean, and hay farmer in
Iowa and vice president of the American Soybean Association, said in
March that some of his neighbors didn’t have cash on hand last fall
to buy fertilizer and were struggling to budget for fertilizer due
to high prices.
The war also caused gasoline and diesel prices to surge, causing
further headaches for farmers. Oil prices dropped following the
ceasefire announcement, but the war and the closure of the strait
will have lasting impacts on farmers, said Seth Goldstein, a senior
equity analyst at Morningstar, an investment research company.
Facilities in the Middle East that are critical for exporting
chemicals, oil and other commodities were damaged or destroyed
during the war and it will take time for supply chains to recover,
he said.
“Facilities have been hit, like liquid natural gas plants,”
Goldstein added. “You are also looking at a big supply crunch in
commodity chemicals, which are the inputs for crop chemicals.”
“We burn a lot of diesel fuel,” said Chris Gould, a corn and soybean
farmer in Maple Park, Illinois. “It’s hard to say if I’m gonna come
out ahead or behind on this whole deal. But I suspect I’m going to
come out behind.”
Concerns about the future
Farmers’ financial problems are showing up in some measures. Farm
bankruptcies, while still relatively low, continued to climb in
2025, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. In a survey
of 400 farmers conducted by researchers at the Purdue Center for
Commercial Agriculture in late March, almost half said their farm
operation is financially worse off than it was a year ago.
Goldstein, the Morningstar analyst, said farmers’ high costs and low
revenues contributed to the spike in bankruptcies between 2024 and
2025. If costs rise faster than crop prices going forward, he added,
that “would strain farmers again and likely lead to more
bankruptcies.”
After 43 years of farming, Bartek said the smell of fresh dirt still
gets him excited for spring planting. But he’s also heard of farmer
suicides, bankruptcies and “retirement sales” where farmers are
forced to auction off their operations due to financial problems.
Bartek compares farmers to gamblers who put “millions of dollars in
the dirt” hoping for returns.
At times, Bartek doubts his own decision to go into farming. He’s
also worried about his son, who purchased a farm a few years ago.
Bartek wonders: “Did I do the right thing helping him get into
farming?”
___
Kelety reported from Phoenix.
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