Can $1 billion buy victory in the midterm elections? Some Republicans
fear the answer is no
[October 07, 2026]
By STEVEN SLOAN and THOMAS BEAUMONT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans are entering the final month of the
midterm campaign increasingly anxious that the $1 billion at their
disposal may not be enough to fend off sweeping losses as the party
reckons with President Donald Trump's unpopularity, persistent cost
concerns and the fallout from the war in Iran.
The cash advantage, spread out across a half-dozen groups, is driven
largely by the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc., which had nearly $416 million in
cash on hand at the end of August and began stepping up its spending on
critical races in September.
But that money may have come too late, forcing the president's group to
pay much higher rates because of the shrinking availability of air time.
Four Republican Senate campaign officials said groups that reserved
advertising time last spring paid much lower rates than MAGA Inc. and
its affiliated groups.
Instead, by waiting until September, Trump-connected organizations are
sometimes paying more than five times what they would have spent if they
acted earlier.
A representative of MAGA Inc. familiar with the group's strategy said
its spending has allowed Republicans to keep races more competitive than
they would have been otherwise. In some cases, the group has been the
only one on the air criticizing Democratic candidates.
The MAGA Inc. representative and the Republican Senate campaign
officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy.
The challenge is acute in places like Texas, where Trump will travel on
Wednesday for the second time in a week to stump for Republican Ken
Paxton's Senate campaign. The state hasn't elected a Democratic senator
since 1988, yet MAGA Inc. has spent more than $22 million in the past
month, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Another group, Texas PAC, which is aligned with Senate Majority Leader
John Thune, has spent more than $83 million on advertising in the past
month, an extraordinary amount to protect what's normally a safe
Republican seat.
One of those advertisements, which featured Paxton's estranged wife
saying she's supporting the full Republican ticket, aired across the
United States last weekend during a football game between the Dallas
Cowboys and the Houston Texans.
Candidates are charged a lower advertising rate than outside groups, so
the late infusion of super PAC cash has come at a steep price.
MAGA Inc., which is running ads primarily on streaming services, has
been charged roughly $894 per airing, according to AdImpact, while Texas
PAC has been charged roughly $809 for a mix of broadcast and streaming.
That compares with about $290 for Talarico's campaign, also on broadcast
and streaming.
Those averages mask some of the more glaring disparities. For example,
during a football game last month, Texas PAC was charged $450,000 to air
a single spot in the Austin market. Talarico's campaign paid $50,000 for
a spot during the same game in the same market, according to AdImpact.
Elections are a referendum on the power of money
The 2026 campaign is shaping up as a referendum on the power of money in
American politics. Democrats freely acknowledge their disadvantage,
relying instead on anti-Trump sentiment among voters and targeted
messaging on issues like corruption. Some Republicans, meanwhile, are
open about the challenge of trying to spend their way out of a tough
campaign at this late stage.
Neil Newhouse, a longtime Republican pollster, echoed concerns that his
party was deploying its cash too late.
“After the votes are counted, I think we're going to find the most
effective advertising in terms of communicating message and moving
voters and poll numbers, the most effective time was advertising that
happened well before Labor Day, not after it,” he said. “A million
dollars of advertising in October is a drop in the bucket."
Thune's group began pulling back in North Carolina last week, a sign of
the party's challenge in the Senate race there. The state's outgoing
Sen. Thom Tillis has been increasingly vocal about his party's
vulnerabilities and recently said that, even with a strong cash
advantage, “in the last month, you pretty much have to place your bets.”
“If we have endless resources, then we should spend endlessly in every
state,” he said. “Absent endless resources, you've got to make
data-driven decisions about where you can win.”
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President Donald Trump dances at a campaign rally at the Pinnacle
Bank Expo Center, Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, in Grand Island, Neb. (AP
Photo/Charlie Riedel)
The midterms mark the first national election since the Supreme
Court in June erased limits on how much political parties can spend
in coordination with candidates for Congress and president,
injecting even more money into a political system already awash in
cash.
Money alone doesn't translate into victory
There's plenty of evidence that money alone doesn't translate into
victory.
Democrat Kamala Harris entered the final stretch of the 2024
campaign with significantly more money than Trump but went on to
lose every critical swing state and the White House. Elon Musk's $25
million didn't lift his preferred candidate to a Wisconsin Supreme
Court seat last year. And Tom Steyer didn't advance to the general
election in the California governor's race despite pumping $216
million of his own money into the campaign.
The $1 billion that Republicans have amassed compares to at least
roughly $579 million held by a comparable collection of major
Democratic groups.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said his party is facing an
“obscene” amount of spending that could swamp them in the midterms.
“We're never going to have as much money as them,” he said in an
interview. “I sum up the election in this sentence: Can a massive
Republican advantage in money beat a massive Democratic advantage in
better candidates and political climate? I bet it can.”
In addition to Texas, Democrats have mounted competitive Senate
campaigns in states like Ohio, Maine, Iowa and Michigan. A similar
dynamic has emerged in governors' races from Florida and Georgia to
Wisconsin, Ohio and Nevada.
Former President Barack Obama is stepping up his involvement in the
midterms and will headline a fundraiser for Senate candidates on
Wednesday.
In the House, Democrats are growing so confident they can retake the
majority that they're expanding their targets deeper into
traditionally Republican districts in Arkansas and Tennessee. But a
lack of money could limit their gains.
“We absolutely need to spend enough to get our message out,” said
Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington, who chairs the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee. “And district by district, we
are.”
Trump turns to his bond with supporters
From his earliest days as an unlikely political figure, Trump has
consistently overcome expectations. Facing daunting prospects
heading into the final weeks of his last midterm, he's betting he
can again outwit political gravity, relying in large part on the
deep bond he's built with supporters.
He has stepped up his campaign rallies in recent weeks, traveling to
deep red territory to galvanize the party faithful. At events like
the one this past weekend in Vandalia, Ohio, the crowd was
enthusiastic and cheered at the lines that have become Trump staples
over the years, particularly when he dips into profanity. The high
school gymnasium that held the event was packed, though crowds began
emptying out about halfway through the 90-minute rally.
In the closing minutes of a speech Monday in Grand Island, Nebraska,
the president revived his plea that supporters who have stood so
fervently by him pretend as if he is on the ballot one more time.
“In a true way, I am running,” he said. “We have to keep it going.”
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Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa. Associated Press writers
Seung Min Kim in Vandalia, Ohio, and Mary Clare Jalonick in
Washington contributed to this report.
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