A new threat by Yemen's Houthis could widen the Iran war and put another
trade chokepoint at risk
[July 22, 2026]
By FATMA KHALED and AHMED AL-HAJ
CAIRO (AP) — A declared blockade of Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Houthi
rebels has the potential to widen the Iran war and further disrupt
global oil supplies and international trade.
The rebels say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi-linked
shipping in retaliation for the kingdom’s blockade on Yemen and a recent
attack on the international airport in Yemen's rebel-held capital, Sanaa.
The Houthis claim to have forced six ships to reroute on Tuesday, but
there was no independent confirmation.
Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a vital
shipping chokepoint, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Arabia.
Around 12% of the world’s trade, including a fourth of global container
traffic, passes through the narrows, moving between Europe and Asia via
Egypt’s Suez Canal.
The strait has become even more vital for Saudi oil exports since the
disruption of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has severely
limited shipping out of the Persian Gulf.
The Houthis say they will only stop vessels connected to Saudi Arabia or
going in and out of its Red Sea ports. But during a similar blockade
announced against Israel over the war in Gaza, the rebels attacked many
vessels with little or no connection to that conflict.
The threat alone could keep international shippers from using the route.
Sporadic attacks could largely block the waterway
The Houthis don’t control the part of Yemen’s coastline along Bab
el-Mandeb — that’s in the hands of its opponents in the country’s civil
war. But they hold territory less than 100 kilometers (60 miles) away.
Three Houthi officials told the AP on Tuesday that the group has planned
for months how to disrupt shipping in the strait. Those plans include
the use of naval mines, explosive-laden boats, drones and helicopters to
allow fighters to board ships, the officials said, speaking on condition
of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to media.
They said vessels would first be warned not to cross designated
boundaries in the strait. If ships ignore the warnings, the Houthis
would resort to military action.
In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has shown that even sporadic attacks on
ships can be enough to effectively close a critical waterway, by driving
up risks and insurance premiums.
Global trade could be disrupted at a second chokepoint
“If Bab el-Mandeb comes under pressure at the same time as shipping in
the Gulf, you have disruption around two of the world’s most important
maritime routes at once,” Clionadh Raleigh, the founder of ACLED, a
conflict monitoring service, said Tuesday.
More than 7 million barrels of petroleum a day transited Bab el-Mandeb
in June, compared to around 4 million before the Iran war, Allison
Minor, the director of the Atlantic Council’s Project for Middle East
Integration, wrote in an analysis published Monday.
Saudi Arabia has been recently exporting some 4 million barrels of oil a
day through its Red Sea port of Yanbu, blunting the impact of the
closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has still rattled economies
around the world.
Saudi Arabia could still get crude to market without using Bab
el-Mandeb, by shipping up to 2.5 million barrels a day across the Red
Sea to Egypt, whose SUMED pipeline can carry it to the Mediterranean. It
could also ship 1 million barrels a day through the Suez Canal.
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Fireworks burst as Houthi supporters rally against the Saudi-led
coalition in Sanaa, Yemen, Monday, July 20, 2026. (AP Photo/Osamah
Abdulrahman)
International shippers could also reroute, as they did at the height
of the war in Gaza. But that means going the long way around the
Cape of Good Hope off South Africa, adding one or two weeks to
voyages — and raising costs.
Attacks could draw retaliation and reignite Yemen's war
The Houthis attacked over 100 vessels at the height of the war in
Gaza, before a punishing U.S. and Israeli air campaign put an end to
the attacks in early 2025.
U.S. President Donald Trump brushed off the latest threat.
“So far, it hasn’t happened,” Trump told reporters in the Oval
Office on Tuesday. “I think that if there is something like that,
we’ll just have to take care of business.”
The Houthis also run the risk of reigniting the war with Saudi
Arabia and its allies in Yemen, where major fighting ended with a
truce in 2022. Saudi Arabia’s military says it will keep Bab
el-Mandeb open.
“All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with
swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of
international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.
Gen. Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesperson.
Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when the rebels seized the capital,
Sanaa, and much of northern Yemen, forcing the government into
exile. Saudi Arabia has led an international coalition fighting the
rebels and also imposed an air and sea blockade on Houthi-held parts
of Yemen, which had eased in recent years.
The Houthis say Saudi Arabia struck the airport in Sanaa earlier
this month in an attempt to stop a flight carrying Houthi leaders
back from Iran, where they had attended the funeral of Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The plane landed safely at another
airport.
The Houthis then launched missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia’s Abha
International Airport in the most significant confrontation in
years.
The Houthis say closing Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi traffic aims to break
the coalition’s blockade.
Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis
Group, said the blockade also benefits the Houthis' ally, Iran, at a
time when the U.S. has resumed daily airstrikes.
″From Iran’s perspective, opening additional pressure points across
the region gives it more leverage,” Nagi said. “The Houthis provide
Tehran with influence over one of the world’s most important
maritime chokepoints.”
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Al-Haj reported from Aden, Yemen. Associated Press writer Collin
Binkley in Washington contributed.
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