As Democrats eye big midterm wins, Republicans look to turn the tables
in some House districts
[October 08, 2026]
By WILL WEISSERT
WASHINGTON (AP) — The midterm elections might look ominous for President
Donald Trump, but there are places where his Republican Party could turn
the tables on Democrats if it can peel off a few key wins in key
congressional races.
National organizations are pumping money behind candidates that
Republicans hope can provide bright spots. Here's a look at places where
that cash bump — and prime issues like redistricting, immigration and
top-of-the-ticket races — might help the party hold their own on
Election Night on Nov. 3.
It still won't be enough, counters Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee spokesman Aidan Johnson, who says his party remains “firmly on
offense and on track to take back” the House majority.
An open New Hampshire seat and Trump PAC spending
The race in the state's first district has no incumbent as Democratic
Rep. Chris Pappas runs for Senate against John E. Sununu, a former
Republican congressman who served a single term as senator from 2003 to
2009.
Stefany Shaheen, a former Portsmouth city councilor and daughter of
retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, won a hotly contested Democratic primary.
She's facing Anthony DiLorenzo, who was endorsed by Trump and owns
several car dealerships.
The seat used to frequently flip between parties, but has remained blue
since Pappas first got to Congress in 2019, and the district narrowly
supported Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump in 2024.
Shaheen has focused on the rising cost of health care and opposing
Trump's tariffs and trade wars, which she says have hurt New Hampshire
consumers.
DiLorenzo has taken a more moderate stance on immigration than Trump,
calling for pro-business reforms to the federal system. But he's also
echoed the president's saying that Democrats want to push the U.S.
toward outright socialism.
Last year, Republican Jay Ruais, the mayor of the district's largest
city of Manchester, was reelected with around 59% of the vote.
Republicans are also looking for a boost from the Senate race. No Going
Back Pac has pledged $10 million to back Sununu. The group is associated
with MAGA Inc., Trump's behemoth campaign war chest that had more than
$400 million in the bank at the end of July.
Top of the ticket could spill also into Long Island race
First-term Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen is facing Republican Jeanine
Driscoll, a tax receiver in Hempstead in New York's fourth district,
which includes Nassau County and runs east of Manhattan, hugging Long
Island's south shore.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman is considered an
underdog against incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in a statewide
race in reliably blue New York. But Blakeman is the Nassau County
executive, meaning he may see strong turnout on his home turf and
potentially affect Driscoll's chances against Gillen.
In 2024, Trump nearly carried the district after losing it by well over
10 points in 2020.
While Gillen has stressed sometimes working with Republicans to address
key issues like the rising cost of living, Driscoll has championed
Trump's immigration policies while promising to better shield suburban
Long Island from regional and statewide policies she criticizes as
government overreach.
Landsman defends redder Ohio territory
Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman 's first district on the westside of
Cincinnati backed Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 but was redrawn
to make it more Republican-leaning ahead of November.
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The Hidalgo County Republican Party Headquarters are seen,
Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026, in McAllen, Texas. (AP Photo/Julia
Demaree Nikhinson,File)
The new boundaries encompass Clinton County and rural western
Hamilton County, while reducing the more Democratic-friendly
Cincinnati suburbs. It's one of several places with new maps after
Trump urged an unusual round of redistricting around the country to
help his party keep control of the House.
Landsman, who was first elected to Congress in 2022, is squaring off
against Republican former Air Force veteran and CIA officer Eric
Conroy.
Like Trump, Conroy spent months suggesting that the war in Iran
would reach a swift conclusion. The president now says that won't
happen until at least after the midterms.
Landsman has focused on pocketbook issues, including rising utility
rates. He's also raised more money than his challenger in recent
quarters, which could be an indicator of where the race is headed.
Tax policy spotlighted in a Las Vegas district
Looking to unseat Democratic incumbent Rep. Susie Lee in Nevada's
third district is Marty O'Donnell, the composer behind music
featured in the wildly popular Halo video game series and the 1990s
jingle for Flintstones vitamins: “We are Flintstones kids, 10
million strong and growing.”
O'Donnell even led the crowd in singing a rendition during the
midterm convention that Trump led in Dallas.
Lee first won her seat during a Democratic wave in 2018 and survived
in 2024 even though her district backed Trump. Nevada relies heavily
on the tourism and hospitality industries, and Republicans are
touting Trump's legislation to cut taxes on tips and overtime.
Lee and other key Democrats counter that Trump hasn't kept campaign
promises to lower costs — especially as the war with Iran has driven
up gasoline and diesel prices and renewed fears about high
inflation.
There could also be trickle-down effects from Nevada's governor's
race. Republican incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo is a former sheriff of
Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. He's in what's likely to be
a close race with Nevada's attorney general, Democrat Aaron Ford,
who previously represented a Las Vegas-area district in the state
senate.
Testing immigration messaging in southern New Mexico
Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez narrowly won his seat in 2022. And he
narrowly won reelection in 2024 even as Trump carried the district,
which stretches from southern and western Albuquerque to encompass
the state's entire southern half — including around 180 miles (290
kilometers) of U.S.-Mexico border.
Vasquez has built a political identity around being the son of
Mexican immigrants and the first in his family to be born in the
U.S. His Republican opponent, Greg Cunningham, is a Marine veteran
and onetime undercover police officer, spoke at Trump's midterm
convention and has focused on calls for stricter border security and
law and order.
Hispanic voters shifted toward Trump in 2024, though a majority
still backed Harris. According to AP VoteCast, 43% of Hispanic
voters nationally supported Trump, up from 35% in 2020. Vasquez's
race with Cunningham may test Trump's continued appeal with
Hispanics and whether some voters have become disillusioned with the
president’s tougher immigration policies in addition to his handling
of the economy.
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