Many states deciding control of the Senate are seeing a big boost in
early voting, AP analysis shows
[October 22, 2026]
By JOEY CAPPELLETTI, MIKE CATALINI and SIMRAN PARWANI
WASHINGTON (AP) — Voter turnout is soaring compared with the last
midterm election in many of the states that are expected to decide
control of the U.S. Senate, according to an Associated Press analysis of
early voting two weeks before Election Day.
In Texas, early voting is up 74% compared with 2022. In Kansas it’s more
than doubled. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio also have seen increases of
more than 30% in early in-person and mail voting compared with the same
point in 2022.
Democrats are trying to flip Republican-held Senate seats in each of
those states. In most of them, Republicans are accounting for a smaller
share of advance voters than they did four years ago.
The AP’s data, which runs through Tuesday, gives a snapshot of potential
voter enthusiasm — and where it might be lacking — after early voting
has opened in most states during a midterm cycle that has shifted in
often unpredictable ways.
Dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the persistently
high cost of living, and high gas and diesel prices caused by the Iran
war have generated political blowback against Republicans in places the
party didn’t anticipate having to defend this year.
Nationally, more than 13 million mail-in and early in-person votes have
been cast, compared with 9 million at the same point in 2022. The
increase also reflects a few additional states that expanded their early
voting opportunities and ones that made more of their data available
since the last midterms.
Midterm elections typically favor the party out of power in Washington.
With Republicans in control of both chambers of Congress and the White
House, it's a distinctly different environment than 2022, when Democrats
were in charge.
Democrats energized by competitive Senate races in GOP-leaning states
Senate Democrats were expected to face a tough map this cycle, defending
a number of battlegrounds with only a few opportunities to flip seats in
areas Trump won by single digits in 2024. Republicans currently hold a
53-47 majority in the chamber.
But with gas and diesel prices up significantly from where they were a
year ago and Trump increasingly unpopular among voters, Democrats have
been wading into traditionally Republican states, hoping to win there
for the first time in decades.
Earlier this month, Republicans pulled back spending in a
once-competitive North Carolina Senate race and dumped close to $12
million into Kansas, a state Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024,
to support GOP Sen. Roger Marshall against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Trump held a rally Monday in the state, where more than 55,000 people
have cast their ballots so far — more than double the 27,000 people who
had voted at this point in the cycle in 2022. That year, Democratic Gov.
Laura Kelly narrowly won reelection while Republican Sen. Jerry Moran
won overwhelmingly.
Specific races seem to be drawing voters to the polls
Texas also has seen a massive surge, even though early in-person voting
just started Monday. The number of ballots cast two weeks from Election
Day has reached nearly 1 million, up from roughly 550,000 at the same
stage in 2022. Texas’ data doesn’t show ballots returned by party
registration.
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Voters wait in line to receive their ballots at early in-person
voting in Cleveland, Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
The surge comes as Democrat James Talarico and Republican state
Attorney General Ken Paxton compete for the Senate seat currently
held by GOP Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in a primary
runoff with Trump’s endorsement.
Democrats have targeted Paxton, who is benefiting from millions in
outside spending, over corruption allegations and his impeachment by
the Texas Legislature, though he was later acquitted.
Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat to win statewide in
more than three decades. Incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott also is in
an election fight against Democratic state lawmaker Gina Hinojosa.
Ohio has top races up and down the ballot this year, with tight
contests for U.S. Senate, House and governor. Total spending on the
Ohio Senate race will reach close to $500 million, according to
AdImpact.
The increased attention is reflected in the votes, with 156,000 more
ballots cast so far compared with 2022, a 30% increase. Some voting
laws have changed in Ohio since 2022, including the state
eliminating its grace period for receiving mail ballots, a change
that forces voters to return those ballots earlier.
In Maine, where five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking
reelection against Democrat Troy Jackson, there’s been an increase
of 39% in ballots cast this year compared with two weeks before the
election in the 2022 midterm.
Advance vote hasn't increased in every competitive state
In Michigan and Georgia, two states where Democrats are defending
Senate seats, the total number of early votes cast is high, but
similar to four years ago.
Both states shattered their midterm voting records in 2022, with
reproductive rights on the ballot in Michigan and a highly
competitive U.S. Senate race in Georgia that year.
Iowa, which voted three times for Trump in presidential years, has
competitive contests for governor, Senate and in three of its four
House districts. Early voting there two weeks out from the election
is down about 6% from the same period four years ago.
___
Ryan Dubicki and Michaela Herbst of The Associated Press Election
Services team contributed to this report from Washington.
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