Trump's trade war with Canada could rattle economies in states with key
Senate races
[August 25, 2026]
By BILL BARROW and PATRICK WHITTLE
PORTLAND, Maine (AP) — President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada is
escalating as the midterm elections approach, threatening Republican
efforts to address voters' economic concerns in a year when control of
the U.S. Senate hinges on states along the border between the United
States and its northern neighbor.
The dispute flared over the weekend after negotiations broke down,
leading Trump to raise tariffs on $20 billion in Canadian imports.
Canada plans to announce tariffs of its own on Tuesday, and the
spiraling conflict could lead to higher prices and scrambled supply
chains for Americans already aggravated at the president’s management of
the economy.
Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, one of Democrats' top targets
this year, warned that fallout from Trump's approach would hurt U.S.
businesses and consumers.
“Imposing new tariffs on Canada is a mistake,” Collins said while
campaigning Monday, and she mentioned lobsters, blueberries, lumber and
other Maine products that end up in Canadian markets.
The issue also puts pressure on Republicans in Michigan, Ohio and
Alaska, states where Canada is an important trading partner. Many
Democrats seem eager to capitalize on the matter as they try to regain
the Senate majority, despite the party's own history with protectionist
sentiments.
“Trump is escalating a trade war with Canada for his own vanity,”
Michigan's Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed said on social media,
adding that his Republican opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers, is a
“rubber stamp” for such policies. A third of the state's exports go
north of the border.
Marc Short, a top adviser to then-Vice President Mike Pence during the
first Trump presidency, said the issue is a political trap for
Republicans.
“It’s hard, obviously, because you don’t want to incur the wrath of the
president," he said. “But at the same time, I think if you’re
representing agricultural states, especially, your voters are probably
anxious to have somebody representing their interests in Washington
right now.”
Trump charges forward on tariffs
It's possible that Trump will change course or delay his plans. But for
now, the president is making no apologies for the economic turmoil.
“Canada has been ripping off the United States for years,” Trump blasted
on his Truth Social platform Monday, adding that he will raise tariffs
on all Canadian automobiles and auto parts and steel to 50% in 2027. He
added, “WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US!”
Trump's top trade official more calmly downplayed the dispute. “This is
something where we don’t actually expect a huge impact,” U.S. Trade
Representative Jamieson Greer told reporters outside the West Wing.
Vice President JD Vance visited Maine on Monday, where he praised “our
very independent friend Susan Collins” and assured voters “we’re very
mindful of the fact that Maine is a border state with Canada.” He said
the administration is trying to make sure Maine “gets a fair deal.”
Collins did not appear with Vance on Monday or during his last trip to
Maine. She campaigned on her own as she tries to hold off a challenge
from Democratic nominee Troy Jackson, a former state legislative leader.
Jackson, a logger before going into politics, said tariffs are another
example of how Collins does not do enough to stand up to the president.
“Troy spent most of his life working along the Canadian border, so he
knows how important this relationship is to Maine’s economy,” Jackson
spokesman Dan Gottlieb said.
Republicans are trying to defend Senate control
Trump made no secret of his affection for tariffs during his comeback
campaign, promising that higher taxes on imports would generate a
windfall for the U.S. Treasury and boost domestic manufacturing. But
concerns about inflation and affordability have not receded, including
in states with key races this year.
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President Donald Trump speaks with Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen after a
back to school event in the Rose Garden of the White House, Monday,
Aug. 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Maine, Ohio, Michigan and Alaska boast industries including fisheries,
auto parts, lumber and produce that export items across the northern
border, while Canadian imports are sold by a range of U.S. retailers.
Iowa, which also has a competitive Senate race, does not border Canada
or its waters, but also exports more goods to Canada than any other
nation.
Majority Forward, a political action committee tied to Senate Democrats,
already ran television advertisements against Republican Sen. Dan
Sullivan of Alaska during last year's partial government shutdown.
“The tariffs are hitting Alaska the hardest,” the ad said. “Call Dan
Sullivan and tell him … stop raising our costs.”
Trade is a key issue in Ohio
Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to return to Washington by
unseating Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Brown has long been a
union-friendly protectionist Democrat. But he’s argued against Trump’s
approach, saying it’s one thing to get aggressive with an adversarial
economic powerhouse like China but another to impose uneven,
unpredictable tariffs on neighboring nations.
Husted signed a bipartisan letter earlier this year urging the
administration to proceed carefully while renegotiating a trade
agreement with Canada and Mexico. But he's also embraced the White
House's economic policies, recently appearing with Vance at an Ohio
steel plant to praise the administration's economic agenda.
“Today is a new day, it truly is," Husted said. "It’s a new day because
of the ‘America First’ agenda.”
Brown has not yet criticized Husted on Canadian tariffs, concentrating
instead on the senator's support for data centers and Trump’s war with
Iran. But Senate Majority PAC spokeswoman Lauren French said the Canada
tariffs fight fits seamlessly into the broader case that Brown and other
Democrats are making about Trump and his allies.
“It’s another proof point for the argument that this is a guy who
continues to raise your costs for no reason at all,” she said.
Vance says Trump wants ‘fairness’
Short said Trump's first-term protectionism was easier to defend because
it was more focused on China. In the second Trump presidency, Short
said, “we’ve so alienated our normal trading partners that part of their
retaliation has been not to buy agricultural products,” thus cutting off
replacement markets for any lost trade with Beijing.
In Maine, Vance insisted Trump only wants to level the playing field
with Canada.
“They don’t expect anybody to fight back,” Vance said. “We’re sick of
that.”
He also criticized Canada as treating China more fairly than the U.S. in
trade negotiations.
“It’s over,” Vance said. “We expect fairness in our trade policy.”
Collins shared a different goal.
“I really want us to go back to the very friendly, economically
beneficial relationship that we have with our Canadian neighbors," she
said.
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Barrow reported from Atlanta. Associated Press writers Julie Carr Smyth
in Columbus, Ohio, and Seung Min Kim in Washington contributed to this
report.
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