The GOP was confident about keeping its Senate majority. Now the fight
for control is wide open
[September 08, 2026]
By JOEY CAPPELLETTI, THOMAS BEAUMONT and MARY CLARE
JALONICK
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans appeared to have a firm grip on the Senate
heading into the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term. But
with less than two months until Election Day, control of the chamber is
now up for grabs.
Democrats have found themselves competing in states that once seemed
beyond their reach as President Donald Trump’s slipping approval ratings
and voters' dissatisfaction with the economy create a difficult
political environment for Republicans. But races Democrats once counted
on winning have also become more complicated.
It's a battle that's expected to exceed $3.4 billion in spending across
all races during the midterm campaign. The implications are huge for
Trump’s agenda and his ability to fill administration jobs and open
court seats for the remainder of his term, as the Senate is empowered to
confirm or block presidential nominees.
Republicans say it's unlikely for everything to break in Democrats'
favor, but they acknowledge they're facing a difficult landscape. Senate
Majority Leader John Thune told South Dakota's KELOLAND News last week
that he does “worry” about losing the chamber.
“I’m a realist," Thune said. "I don’t ever try and sugarcoat things. I
think it’s a competitive environment right now.”
Democrats face a scrambled path to the majority
Democrats need to net four seats to win the majority. The original path
had been to hold Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire while winning back
Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. But
things have changed.
“We now have multiple paths for the majority,” Senate Democratic Leader
Chuck Schumer said last month. “We found new states — Iowa, Texas —
which people a year ago weren't even paying attention to.”
Some of the states where Democrats were feeling most optimistic at the
start of the election cycle, such as Michigan and Maine, have grown
murkier.
In Michigan, where there's an open seat this fall, no GOP candidate has
won a Senate race since 1994. But Democrats are struggling to unite
behind nominee Abdul El-Sayed. The favorite of progressives narrowly
defeated moderate U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the August primary, and
feelings remain raw from a bruising contest that saw nearly $70 million
spent against El-Sayed.
Republicans believe Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race by fewer
than 20,000 votes, has an improved shot against El-Sayed. The Senate
Leadership Fund — Senate Republicans' spending PAC — added $6 million to
its Michigan advertising investment after El-Sayed won, bringing their
total spending to $51 million, the third-highest total.
Democrats also saw a prime opportunity to finally defeat five-term
Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, where Democratic Vice President
Kamala Harris won more votes than Trump in 2024.
Progressive Graham Platner easily won the nomination in June, but he
left the race the next month over a sexual assault allegation that he
denies. Democratic delegates in late July chose Troy Jackson, a
lesser-known former state legislative leader, to replace him.
Jackson has been forced to play catch-up. Collins and aligned super PACs
have spent almost $80 million so far, according to the ad-tracking firm
AdImpact, while Jackson and Democratic-aligned groups have spent and
reserved close to $45 million since he became the nominee.
As one path narrowed for Democrats, others widened
Democrats increasingly see a real possibility in Texas, a state that has
been an elusive goal for decades, and other GOP-led states including
Iowa, Alaska and Ohio.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces state Attorney General Ken
Paxton, who ousted four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn to
win the GOP nomination. Senate GOP leadership backed Cornyn, seeing him
as the stronger general election candidate.
Paxton has been shadowed for decades by legal and ethical questions,
including indictments for securities fraud, though he was not convicted.
Talarico and allied groups have spent nearly $30 million on advertising
since the May runoff, compared to less than $3 million by pro-Paxton
groups. The political fund associated with Trump last week spent $10
million on TV and digital ads to help Paxton — the first major general
election investment by MAGA Inc. for the midterms. Senate GOP leaders
had petitioned Trump's political team to spend some of the more than
$400 million it had last month to help Paxton.
[to top of second column]
|
At left, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks in McKinney,
Texas, May 19, 2026, and at right, Texas state Rep. James Talarico,
after voting, in Austin, Texas, Feb. 17, 2026. (AP Photo/LM Otero
and Eric Gay,File)
Democrats have also upped their spending in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and
North Carolina, all states currently held by Republicans. The GOP,
meanwhile, is feeling more optimistic about New Hampshire as well as
Michigan, while spending more to defend seats in Iowa and Alaska.
The expanded map has upped the anticipated total spending this
cycle. AdImpact in June projected $3.4 billion in advertising
spending on Senate races, a significant increase from the $2.8
billion the ad spending firm projected in the fall of 2025.
Why more states are in play than expected
Democrats' path has widened in part because of Trump's slumping job
approval, notably on handling the economy, which was at 32%
according to an AP-NORC poll in July — down from 40% in March 2025,
shortly after he took office.
Trump's trade policies and the war in Iran, with its corresponding
inflated fuel costs, have added to the economic uncertainty for
voters less than two months before Election Day.
“Things still cost too much. And so we’ve got to work on that
issue," Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio told The Associated
Press. “We understand that and we know that’s real.”
Ohio Sen. Jon Husted heard the concern firsthand at a roundtable
last month. Husted is looking to fend off a comeback from former
Sen. Sherrod Brown in another key matchup for both parties.
During the discussion on housing, one attendee told Husted that
costs were “skyrocketing” in part because of uncertainty around
tariffs.
“Uncertainty is the killer to this economy," said Dean Windham, a
real estate developer who previously ran for office as a Republican.
Some Republican Senate candidates have defended Trump’s policies
while confronting concerns about their economic impact.
In Michigan, where Trump’s tariffs on Canada have become a central
issue, Rogers has backed the president’s approach while leaving room
for disagreement.
“President Trump is right to put America First — and tariffs are
necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution,” Rogers said in
a recent statement.
Republicans believe the math still favors them
Even if Democrats hold every seat they currently control, they would
need to flip at least two seats in states Trump carried by double
digits in 2024 to win the majority.
Republicans are betting that those underlying advantages will matter
more as Election Day approaches — particularly as Trump and the
party turn their attention toward mobilizing voters who helped
return him to the White House.
Trump told reporters last week that he will “be making a lot of
stops” in the last 30 days before the election.
Next week, Republicans will hold a midterm convention in Texas,
where Trump is set to speak and top Senate candidates including
Rogers and Husted are expected to attend.
But Republicans acknowledge they have work to do.
“Politics is local,” Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota
said. He pointed to Trump’s decision to import beef, which he said
made farmers and ranchers “feel just like the administration pulled
the rug right off from underneath” them.
“They’re hurt," Rounds said. “They feel like they’ve been let down.”
___
Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa.
All contents © copyright 2026 Associated Press. All rights reserved
 |
