GOP doubts about Georgia and North Carolina have Republicans shifting
focus in battle for Senate
[September 29, 2026]
By THOMAS BEAUMONT, BILL BARROW and STEVEN SLOAN
ATLANTA (AP) — Republicans once saw Georgia and North Carolina as
promising pieces of their strategy to keep control of the Senate. But
hopes of winning the two states have been fading, and the GOP is
increasingly focused on playing defense elsewhere with five weeks until
the midterm elections.
Republicans haven't abandoned the Southern battlegrounds, which
President Donald Trump carried narrowly in 2024, though they are
shifting greater resources to states they see as more competitive. The
party now is spending heavily to defend reliably Republican Texas, and
Trump is planning to campaign for the Republican incumbent in Ohio, both
places the president won easily in 2024.
Some Republicans also have become more vocal in their complaining that
Trump has squandered an opportunity to more comfortably hold off
Democrats this fall. Among their grievances, they say the president
failed to bring the unpopular war in Iran to a close, has dismissed the
pinch of high fuel prices and engaged late in the midterm campaigns.
And though Democrats must still win several seats Republicans hold to
win back the majority, the GOP is looking more at protecting seats they
already hold than picking up Georgia, and they are signaling serious
problems in North Carolina.
“There is a Republican turnout problem due to the administration's
failure to address the economic concerns of voters,” North Carolina
Republican strategist Paul Shoemaker said of the state's U.S. Senate
race.
GOP Senate leaders look beyond Georgia
Republican Senate campaign leaders are looking past Georgia businessman
Mike Collins' challenge of first-term Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff to
states they viewed as more competitive to focus future spending,
according to two Republican Senate campaign sources familiar with Senate
leadership's thinking. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity to
share internal discussions.
Ossoff has swamped the successful trucking company executive in
fundraising. Collins has also struggled to broaden his support beyond
Georgia's Republican base.
Despite Senate Majority Leader John Thune's two-day campaign and
fundraising trip to Georgia this month, some local party leaders were
publicly pessimistic.
"He just doesn’t have what it takes to beat Ossoff,” said Tim Waters,
Peach County Republican Party chair. “It’s hard enough trying to beat an
incumbent, and you have the president of the same party in a tough
midterm, right? I don’t think he’s got much of a shot.”
Republicans had viewed Georgia early in the 2026 campaign as a potential
firewall, should Democrats win in a critical number of states where
Republican seats are on the ballot. Democrats must win a net of four
seats to win back the majority.
But Ossoff has already spent $57 million in advertising and had $13
million reserved through the election, according to the ad-tracking firm
AdImpact. And while outside groups aligned with Collins had spent more
than $52 million, AdImpact shows, Collins' campaign confirmed it had no
advertising time immediately reserved.
Tillis is among the NC Republicans warning about Senate race
Retiring Republican North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis stopped short of
suggesting GOP candidate Michael Whatley's chances of holding the seat
for the party had vanished, but implied it was time to take a hard look
at how long to continue spending heavily against Democratic former
two-term Gov. Roy Cooper.
“We've got to place our bets on the candidates that are the best run,
either ahead or within striking distance,” Tillis told reporters Monday
in the Capitol. “You've got to change your posture going into the last —
we've got 36 days.”
Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, has been a
darling of Trump, who campaigned for him this month. But enthusiasm for
Trump seems to have fallen even with a number of Republicans who voted
for him, said Shoemaker, a Tillis adviser. Trump narrowly won North
Carolina in 2024.
“The blue-collar, working-class voters that Donald Trump brought to the
Republican Party is the one that's being most impacted by higher energy
prices, and it's dampened their enthusiasm to turn out and vote,”
Shoemaker said.
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President Donald Trump listens as North Carolina Republican U.S.
Senate candidate Michael Whatley speaks during a rally at Gastonia
Municipal Airport, Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026, in Gastonia, N.C. (AP
Photo/Alex Brandon)
Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate GOP's leadership super PAC, had
$19.5 million in advertising booked in North Carolina, having spent
$30.4 million to date.
“Do I think Roy Cooper is going to win the race? I absolutely do,”
said Michele Woodhouse, former Republican chair for North Carolina's
11th Congressional District and a devout Trump supporter.
“Roy Cooper, for Republicans, is the worst Democrat candidate who
could be running for this seat," Woodhouse said. “He’s never lost in
a statewide race. He’s very popular.”
Senate GOP PAC spends heavily in Texas as Trump heads for Ohio
In Texas, where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988,
Republicans' Senate Leadership Fund is spending more than it is in
any of the states it set out to defend early in the year. The group
this month pumped more than $100 million into advertising in Texas
to back up state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces Democratic
state Rep. James Talarico in a race viewed as very competitive.
Trump endorsed Paxton over four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John
Cornyn in the GOP primary. GOP campaign leaders considered Paxton a
potential drain on Republican resources because he has for years
faced legal, ethical and personal questions. They include a felony
indictment, impeachment charges and extramarital affairs, though
Paxton was never convicted.
Senate GOP leaders had suggested Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., would
carry a good portion of the advertising load after Paxton beat
Cornyn in the May GOP Senate runoff. Neither the National Republican
Senatorial Committee nor SLF had included spending on Texas in its
midterm budget.
As of Monday, MAGA Inc., has committed more than $20 million to ads
supporting Paxton so far this month, compared with the $124 million
from SLF.
Should Democrats win North Carolina and Texas, they would only need
to win two of the remaining competitive Republican-held seats — in
Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Ohio — as well as hold competitive
Democratic-held seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire to
capture the majority.
Trump plans to visit Ohio on Saturday to support Sen. Jon Husted as
the Republican tries to fend off a competitive challenge from
Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown. The president plans to
campaign with Husted in Vandalia, near Dayton in southwest Ohio.
Senate Republican campaign leaders have complained that spiking gas
prices, a result of the seven-month-long war with Iran, are among
the issues weighing against candidates that Trump has exacerbated.
Campaigning with Whatley last week, Trump called higher fuel prices
“a very inexpensive price to pay” for preventing Iran from acquiring
a nuclear weapon. Though gas prices are near historic highs, they
are still below the nationwide record set in 2022.
It's prompted some candidates, such as Iowa's GOP Senate nominee,
Rep. Ashley Hinson, to speak out.
“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at
the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” she said last
week.
South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds dismissed that the Republican majority
was slipping away, but suggested senators needed to act on fuel
prices.
“We have to stay focused on the fact that we know that gas prices
are too high, and diesel is way too high," the Republican said.
___
Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa and Sloan from Washington.
AP reporter Sarah Rankin in Richmond, Virginia, contributed to this
report.
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