Republicans' recent stumbles in Congress highlight the difficult road
ahead for their agenda
[May 29, 2026]
By KEVIN FREKING
WASHINGTON (AP) — A roughly $70 billion bill to fund immigration
enforcement through the remainder of President Donald Trump's term was
supposed to be an easy lift for Republicans.
But progress stalled over concerns about the inclusion of White House
ballroom security funding in the package and the creation of a $1.8
billion fund to finance claims of government mistreatment. The stumble
has not only delayed action on a top GOP priority but also is raising
questions about other parts of the party's legislative agenda, including
whether Republicans can enact another catchall, party-line bill referred
to in Washington parlance as “Reconciliation 3.0.”
Republicans have spent recent weeks laying the groundwork for such a
bill, which they hope will serve as a final sales pitch to voters going
into the midterms.
Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, both of
Louisiana, have been meeting with committee and caucus chairs to screen
for proposals that have strong buy-in from the rank and file. They are
aiming to follow up on last summer's big tax and spending cuts bill with
a measure that would increase Pentagon spending by hundreds of billions
of dollars and would include cuts elsewhere to help pay for it, which
they are couching as tackling government waste and fraud.
It's a high-stakes gambit in an election year. Success will reinforce
the GOP's message of being able to deliver on legislative priorities.
Failure will underscore some of the Republican fractures under Trump
that could leave voters seeking an alternative.
Here's a look at the coming debate as Republicans hope to pass a bill
before leaving for their August recess.
House Republicans sound confident
Johnson navigated the House GOP's slim majority in passing Trump's tax
and spending cuts bill last summer. The vote was 218-214. At the time,
Republicans could afford to lose three votes from within their ranks.
They lost just two.
They'll have a thin margin of error again, but Johnson said he's even
more confident of success this time around.
“It will be just as beautiful, but not as big, so it’ll have less
provisions and less things to get everybody to yes on," he said.
Rep. Jodey Arrington, chairman of the House Budget Committee, said
Republicans are just as motivated as they were last year on the tax cuts
bill.
“This one, I think you’ll have potentially money to support our troops
in conflict," said Arrington, of Texas. "I can’t imagine a Republican
not wanting to support our troops and military community in a time of
conflict.”
The Trump administration has called on Republicans to provide $350
billion to defense through a reconciliation bill.
But Rep. Brendan Boyle, the lead Democrat on the House Budget Committee,
said Republicans will have a more difficult path than they did with
Trump's big tax and spending cuts bill.
“I think it will be for a couple of reasons. First is the president’s
approval rating. He was at a much higher level a year ago than he is
right now,” said Boyle, of Pennsylvania. "Number 2, we are much closer
to the November midterm elections. So, if you’re one of a dozen or a
couple dozen House Republicans who are really vulnerable in a swing
district, you have to think even more carefully about voting for
something that has even more health care cuts in it.”
The tax cuts bill that passed last summer reduced spending on Medicaid
by more than $900 billion over a decade. It also reduced spending on
nutrition assistance by about $187 billion over a decade, according to
the Congressional Budget Office.
Caution in the Senate
Senate Majority Leader John Thune called a third reconciliation bill to
get around the filibuster a “potential option,” hardly a ringing
endorsement.
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Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., center, is joined by Sen.
Tom Cotton, R-Ark., left, and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va.,
right, during the Senate Republican policy luncheon news conference
at the Capitol, Tuesday, May 19, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Rod
Lamkey, Jr.)
“We haven’t made any commitments on that, but we’re hearing people
out,” said Thune, of South Dakota.
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina said lawmakers should know what
will be in the bill before the legislative process begins. That way,
it's less likely to unravel.
“If it just becomes another exercise where you’re not really sure
what’s going to be the end product, then I think it’s a mistake even
to pursue it,” Tillis said. "We ought to be smart about it if we do
a third one, but it is kind of a moonshot.”
Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said she worried about the strategy.
“A third reconciliation may or may not happen. I’m just being
direct," she said.
Little time and fractured relations
The House is expected to be in session for about 24 more days before
it breaks for its August recess. That leaves little time to pass a
budget blueprint in both chambers, which is the first hurdle for
pursuing party-line tax and spending bills. Committees would also
have to wrap up their work advancing their portions of the
legislation.
Another hurdle could be Trump's treatment of current senators whose
votes he will need for any package to become law. Trump endorsed
opponents of two senators who faced stiff primary challenges and
eventually lost — Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of
Texas.
Cassidy has already shown more willingness to buck the president.
Fresh off his primary loss, he voted last week to advance a bill
that seeks to force Trump to withdraw from hostilities with Iran.
What could make it into the bill
Lawmakers said they could tweak and resurrect some proposals that
did not pass muster with the Senate parliamentarian for inclusion in
last year's reconciliation bill. For example, Republicans tried to
prevent states from providing Medicaid coverage for immigrants who
are in the U.S. illegally.
Rep. August Pfluger of Texas, chairman of the Republican Study
Committee, said the bill should rest on three pillars, making the
country more affordable and secure while reducing fraud.
Among the group's recommendations is a proposal to eliminate the
capital gains tax on the sale of homes to first-time homebuyers,
which they say would incentivize the market, and a proposal to
impose a 5% tax on funds sent by noncitizens back to their home
countries.
Arrington said he would also like to tighten the rules for the
earned income tax credit, a program that increases the financial
reward for working but that also has a high rate of improper
payments. He also called for prohibiting immigrants who are in the
U.S. illegally from living in housing units financed by a housing
tax credit paid to developers who construct and rehab affordable
housing for renters.
“There's a lot more work to be done to build on what we did in the
first one with Medicaid and SNAP (nutrition assistance), with
respect to fraud,” Arrington said.
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Associated Press writers Mary Clare Jalonick and Stephen Groves
contributed to this report.
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