Midterm elections coming to a close as voters pass judgment on Trump's
second term
[November 03, 2026]
By JILL COLVIN, MARY CLARE JALONICK and WILL WEISSERT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters struggling with high prices and angry over an
unpopular war with Iran will decide whether to drastically shift power
in Washington in midterm elections Tuesday that will serve as a
referendum on President Donald Trump ’s second term.
Democrats were cautiously optimistic about their prospects as they
watched Republicans spend the campaign's final stretch pumping tens of
millions of dollars into states and districts that Trump won handily
just two years ago. They are betting that discontent over Trump’s
failure to deliver on his promise to tackle rising costs, and
perceptions that he has been more focused on gilding the nation’s
capital than their pain at the pump, will depress Republican turnout and
drive their own voters to the polls.
Republicans held out hope that their overwhelming money advantage would
help stem the tide, but they were bracing to lose control of the U.S.
House and fighting to hang onto the U.S. Senate — an outcome that seemed
unlikely earlier this year, given a map widely seen as favoring the
party.
Still, the margins are tight in both chambers and just one or two seats
could tip the balance. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the
Senate to win the majority, an uphill climb because many of the most
competitive races are in historically red states. In the House, they
only need three.
More than 57 million people had already cast ballots as of Monday, with
turnout surpassing the early vote four years ago in many closely watched
states.
Trump, whose party has struggled when he is not running to turn out the
low-propensity voters who have fueled his victories, has told voters to
act like he is, even as many Republican candidates have tried to keep
their distance.
“I really want you to pretend I’m on the ballot,” he told the crowd in
Salina, Kansas, Sunday evening at the final of several dozen rallies in
the closing weeks of the campaign.
Trump's aggressive schedule included stops in the reddest states,
including Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas, underscoring his
party's challenges.
The president has also continued to make false claims about voting
fraud, such as insisting noncitizens are casting ballots en masse. His
administration has already filed lawsuits in Alaska and California, and
Democrats fear interference and voter intimidation as his Justice
Department threatens to prosecute local election officials.
It's an election that could reshape the political landscape
The results will shape the final two years of Trump’s second term after
the Republican-controlled Congress acted as a rubber stamp to much of
his agenda. While Trump has proven adept at steamrolling efforts to rein
him in, Democrats taking control of even one chamber of Congress would
open the floodgates to investigations as well as possible impeachments.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and tech titan Elon Musk are among the
possible targets.
An especially strong showing for Democrats would also provide a boost to
the crop of potential presidential candidates waiting in the wings, from
California Gov. Gavin Newsom to Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker to former
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. It could also complicate the
paths of Vice President JD Vance and other Republicans who may be
looking to turn their loyalty to the president into momentum.
Republicans had tried to buck historical precedent — a president’s party
almost always loses seats during the midterms — with an aggressive
redistricting effort aimed at creating a more favorable congressional
map. But the plan may fall short as new districts drawn in Florida and
other states to be safely red may not vote that way.
Other Trump choices could prove costly. In Texas, Trump worked to oust
longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in favor of scandal-plagued Attorney
General Ken Paxton, setting the stage for an extraordinarily expensive
race against Democratic nominee James Talarico, who Democrats hope may
finally help them realize their dream of flipping the state.
And in North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis chose to retire after clashing
with Trump. The president's chosen replacement, former Republican
National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, has struggled to gain traction
against the Democrats' candidate, former Gov. Roy Cooper.
“Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters we win and
that's what we've been planning for," said Republican National Committee
Chairman Joe Gruters, expressing optimism on the eve of the election.
“Although there’s a lot of doom and gloom out there, I think we can defy
history. We just need our voters to turn out," he said. “We still think
we can lift the nose up and win."
The vast majority of Republican television ad spending in the general
election — 88.1% — was spent in states and districts that Trump won in
2024, according to an Associated Press analysis of data from AdImpact, a
media tracking firm. That included more than $850 million spent on ad
reservations in states and districts Trump won by 10 points or more.
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People wait in line to cast their ballot at a polling location open
for early voting at the Curtis D. Menard Memorial Sports Center,
Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Wasilla, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
The electorate has soured on Trump
Polling shows that only 35% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's
performance as president, according to the most recent polling from
The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. And
most blame him for high prices as they struggle to afford gas and
groceries.
What was once his strongest issue is no longer. Only 25% of U.S.
adults now say they approve of Trump's handling of the economy.
Overall, about 7 in 10 say the country is heading in the wrong
direction.
“The American people are angry. They want change. They want folks
who are going to stand up for them,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair
of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who said
momentum was on her party’s side, despite what seemed like
Republicans’ infinite money supply.
The results, she said, “should deliver a very resounding messaging
that people have soured on his agenda.”
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority.
Democrats have been most confident in their chances of picking up
North Carolina and holding Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff is facing
Rep. Mike Collins. Other key battlegrounds include Ohio, where
Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Sen.
Jon Husted, and Alaska, were the administration has filed a lawsuit
to block certification of the state’s Senate results if Republican
incumbent Dan Sullivan loses the race, citing the presence of a
second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the ballot.
Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping they can keep hold of seats in
states like Iowa, Kansas and Maine, and pick up Michigan, where Mike
Rogers is facing progressive Abdul El-Sayed — one of a crop of
left-wing candidates who prevailed in Democratic primaries this
election season. El-Sayed's former primary opponent, Haley Stevens,
upended the race Sunday by endorsing Rogers, renewing focus on
tensions over Israel and the direction of the party that dominated
Democratic primaries.
In the House, Republicans, who had hoped to pick up seats with their
redistricting efforts, are now trying to hang on to their narrow
majority, as Democrats try to flip seats in states Trump has
repeatedly carried, from Florida to Texas to Iowa.
Beyond Washington, 36 states will be electing governors. Democrats
are hoping to take over a majority of statehouses for the first time
in two decades as they ride a wave of voter discontent. Competitive
races include those in heavily populated states such as Texas and
Florida, plus reliably red states such as Iowa.
In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign faced backlash for an
ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother, who lost custody
of Acton decades ago after her husband, Acton’s stepfather, was
indicted for raping Acton as a child.
The stakes in Washington are high
Trump’s final two years in office will likely be defined in part on
the outcome of the race for control of Congress.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is in line to make
history as the nation’s first Black speaker of the House if his
party sweeps to power, has outlined an ambitious 100-days agenda
focused on lowering the cost of living and aggressive oversight of
the Trump administration, as he puts it, to “hold the crooks
accountable.” Impeachment is not off the table.
The Senate, where leadership is unlikely to change, could emerge as
a key backstop for Trump’s priorities if Republicans retain control,
or a new power center for Democrats who could use it to halt
presidential nominees and challenge the White House agenda.
The 2026 elections will likely go down as the most expensive in
history. Republican committees have dramatically outraised and
outspent their Democratic counterparts thanks, in large part, to
money from Trump-affiliated groups and Musk. But at the candidate
level, Democratic candidates outraised their Republican opponents.
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Associated Press data writer Aaron Kessler contributed to this
report.
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