Kansas farmers hit hard by weather extremes and growing costs, wheat
crop could be worst since 1972
[May 21, 2026] By
ALEXA ST. JOHN and CHARLIE RIEDEL
MONTEZUMA, Kan. (AP) — Orville Williams has had a healthy wheat crop on
his 2,600-acre farm in Montezuma, Kansas, every year since he was a
teenager.
It hasn't always been easy. For instance, there were challenging
economic times through the 1980s and various degrees of drought
affecting his yield through the years. But this season feels different.
“All in all, it’s not going to be a good year,” said Williams, 76.
Record-setting drought and hotter-than-average temperatures mixed with
sharp drops have impacted much of the U.S. early this year, including
the Plains region. Drought conditions have worsened the spread of the
wheat streak mosaic virus and barley yellow dwarf virus, which impact
the potential of the crop. Combined with climbing input costs related to
fertilizer, diesel fuel and tariffs, longtime wheat farmers say they are
feeling a lot of pain.
“It’s kind of a double whammy,” Williams added.
Crop estimates underscore just how bad the situation is. Growers will
see their smallest wheat crop in terms of production since 1972,
according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture; 1.56 billion bushels
this year, down 21% from 2025. That’s especially harmful to Kansas, one
of the top overall producers of wheat in the U.S.
Only in five of the past 40 years has Kansas' wheat crop been in such a
bad state, an analysis of USDA data shows, with 58% of the crop rated as
“poor” or “very poor” as of May 17. The last time the fields were in as
bad a condition was during a severe drought in 2023.
“It’s very tough conditions that growers are faced with right now,” said
Kansas State agronomist Romulo Lollato. And he said that affects
consumers, “whether it is through going to a bakery and having higher
bread prices, or whether it’s through losing some of the international
market out there for the U.S.”
With this year so bad, many wheat growers have been forced to file for
crop insurance or consider whether they can lean on other crops to
withstand the uncertainties.
Williams saw close to 100 bushels of wheat per acre irrigated last year,
but this year might only have 30 to 40. He splits his wheat crop between
irrigated and dryland — for which farmers depend on rainfall and soil
moisture — and there, he might only see 10 to 15 bushels per acre.
Williams and other farmers said they know they'll lose money this year.
“I guess my attitude is: Stay the course. Don’t make any new purchases,”
he added. “And forget your wants and just do your needs.”
The weather is unpredictable, and farmers' costs are adding up.
Climate change, caused by the burning of gas, oil and coal, has made
farming a number of crops increasingly challenging over the years,
experts say, and wheat is no exception. Several wheat farmers described
worsening extremes this year, including the winter's intense and
unseasonable heat, late freezes and an ongoing shortage of rain.
The U.S., meanwhile, has lost ground in the global wheat market to
Russia and the European Union; national wheat acreage has dropped over
the past several years for a variety of reasons, said Brad Rippey, USDA
meteorologist.
“There’s certainly a downward trend for wheat in the Great Plains and
elsewhere in the U.S. based on a number of factors, and certainly the
weather challenges over the last couple of decades have been a big part
of that,” Rippey said.
Still, wheat is the nation’s third field crop as planted acreage,
production and gross farm receipts after corn and soybeans, according to
the USDA. The U.S. is one of the world’s largest producers by volume of
wheat each year, and it’s a major exporter of the crop.
Thousands of U.S. farmers rely on wheat as an important livelihood, and
factors outside of their control have made their work more difficult.
The dry conditions sped up how fast the crop grew, USDA data show, not a
positive sign for the quality of the harvest.
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Wheat plants struggle to survive in a drought-stressed field near
Macksville, Kan., Saturday, May 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
 By the end of the first full week of
May, 86% of wheat crops in Kansas had produced a seed head, while
61% was typical in the previous 10 years at the same point in the
season. The plant is “genetically programmed” to produce a head
before dying, Rippey said, but if they do so too early, the result
will often be poor quality.
Only 32.4 million acres (13.1 million hectares) of
wheat were planted this year to begin with, and harvested acreage
hit just 22 million, marking abandonment, which is when farmers stop
tending to a crop before harvesting, at slightly above 32% of this
year's wheat crop, according to USDA estimates.
Except for the 2022-2023 cycle, there have only been a handful of
other years in history where U.S. winter wheat abandonment has been
higher, Rippey noted.
In Kansas, about 17% of the crop is being abandoned this year.
“Rain makes grain,” said Mike Nickelson, a wheat and corn farmer in
western Kansas. “That's the whole key. We can do the very best we
can do and then if we don't get the rain, then it makes it pretty
tough.”
Forecasters are predicting a substantial El Nino, a cyclical and
natural process in which patches of the equatorial Pacific warm and
alter the world’s weather patterns, including rainfall. Because in
the U.S., that is expected to mean warmer-than-normal temperatures
this summer, it could be months before there is any drought relief.
“It seems like we’re the ones out trying to feed the world and we’re
the ones suffering the most,” Nickelson, 60, added. “My son is here
farming with me, and I’d really like to transition him to help take
over the farm. I’m like, really, do I want him to have to do this? I
mean, it’s a great life, but man, right now it’s just tough.”
The war in Iran, meanwhile, has sent fuel prices soaring. Williams,
the Montezuma farmer, said he drives 150 to 200 miles (240 to 320
kilometers) a day, and diesel is up nearly $2 per gallon from one
year ago.
The cost of seed, fertilizer and more is rapidly adding up, too.
Some growers bought fertilizer ahead of time for this season, but
they worry about the year ahead. Farmers already have been
navigating the consequences of the Trump administration’s rocky
trade policy.
Nickelson said urea, a type of fertilizer for agriculture,
previously cost $400 a ton. He is now paying between $600 and $700 a
ton. “You hope to break even, but I’m not sure we’re gonna do that,”
he said.
There aren't many options for farmers to make up for losses.
For Ben Palen, a fifth-generation farmer and farming consultant,
solutions are tough, and relief feels minimal.
Crop insurance to account for the losses only go so far. The Trump
administration has offered one-time bridge payments for qualifying
farmers of a variety of crops to aid their increasing costs amid
trade disruptions and inflation, but those funds are also limited.
Allowing the wheat to fallow — essentially leaving it unused to prep
land for the next crop — or planting something unplanned aren't
viable options, either. It's not just a matter of adding more water
to the land to try to get wheat to stick, and it's difficult for
farmers to change course to another crop at this point in the year.
“It’s a little late now to try to plant something on say, a wheat
crop that’s failed on a particular farm,” Palen, 70, said, “because
we just don’t have soil moisture to get another crop started.
“This is probably about as challenging of a time to be a farmer that
I can recollect,” he added. “It’s a pretty serious situation.”
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