Uncertainty over the economy and tariffs forces many retailers to be
cautious on holiday hiring
[October 14, 2025] By
ANNE D'INNOCENZIO
NEW YORK (AP) — Uncertainty over the economy and tariffs is forcing
retailers to pull back or delay plans to hire seasonal workers who pack
orders at distribution centers, serve shoppers at stores and build
holiday displays during the most important selling season of the year.
American Christmas LLC, which creates elaborate holiday installations
for commercial properties such as New York's Rockefeller Center and
Radio City Music Hall, plans to hire 220 temporary workers and is
ramping up recruitment nearly two months later than usual, CEO Dan
Casterella said. Last year, it took on 300 people during its busy
period.
The main reason? The company wants to offset its tariff bill, which
Casterella expects to be as big as $1.5 million this year, more than
double last year’s $600,000.
“The issue is if you overstaff and then you underperform, it’s too
late," Casterella said. ”I think everyone’s more mindful now than ever.
”
Holiday hiring could fall to 2009 levels
Online behemoth Amazon Inc. said Monday it intends to hire 250,000
full-, part-time and seasonal workers for the crucial shopping period,
the same level as a year ago.
But job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecasts overall
holiday hiring for the last three months of the year will likely fall
under 500,000 positions. That's fewer than last year’s 543,000 level and
also marks the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years when retailers hired
495,800 temporary workers, the firm said.
Among other companies cutting holiday payrolls: Radial, an e-commerce
company that powers deliveries for roughly 120 companies like Lands’ End
and Cole Haan and operates 20 fulfillment sites. It plans to hire 6,500
workers, fewer than last year’s 7,000, and is waiting to the last minute
to ramp up hiring for some of its clients, chief human resources officer
Sabrina Wnorowski, said.
Bath & Body Works, based in Reynoldsburg, Ohio, said it plans to hire
32,000 workers, below the 32,700 a year ago.
“We saw real strong signals that there’s been a cooling in the labor
market, even beyond what our expectations were in the first nine months
of the year,” Challenger's senior vice president Andy Challenger said.
Challenger also noted companies are using artificial intelligence bots
to replace some workers, particularly those working in call centers. And
he's also seeing companies hiring workers closer to when they need them.
Meanwhile, the list of companies staying mum about their specific
holiday hiring goals keeps growing. Target Corp., UPS and Macy’s are
declining to offer figures, a departure from years past.
Holiday hiring: the first clues to what's in store for spending
Retailers' hiring plans mark the first clues to what’s in store for the
U.S. holiday shopping season and come as the U.S. job market has lost
momentum this year, partly because Trump’s trade wars have created
uncertainty that's paralyzing managers trying to make hiring decisions.
The Labor Department reported in early September that U.S. employers —
companies, government agencies and nonprofits — added just 22,000 jobs
in August, down from 79,000 in July and well below the 80,000 that
economists had expected.
The government shutdown, which started Oct. 1 and has delayed the
release of economic reports, could worsen the job picture.
[to top of second column] |
An employee stocks shelves in the toy section of a Walmart in
Secaucus, N.J., Tuesday, Nov. 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)
 In an attempt to exert more pressure
on Democratic lawmakers as the government shutdown continues, the
White House budget office said Friday mass firings of federal
workers have started.
Analysts will be closely monitoring the shutdown's impact on
spending. For now, many retailers say that consumers, while
resilient, are selective. Analysts will also be watching how
shoppers will react to price increases as a result of high tariff
costs in the next few months, experts said.
Given an economic slowdown, holiday spending growth is expected to
be smaller than a year ago, according to several forecasts.
Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment
methods including cash, predicts that holiday sales will be up 3.6%
from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. That compares with a 4.1% increase last
year.
Deloitte Services LP forecasts holiday retail sales to be up between
2.9% to 3.4% from Nov. 1 through Jan. 31. That's compares with 4.2%
last year.
And Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $253.4 billion from Nov.
1 to Dec. 31, representing a 5.3% growth. That’s smaller than last
year's 8.7% growth.
A more flexible approach
Companies are increasingly wanting to hire workers closer to when
they need them, experts said.
“In today's environment, brands are really looking for us to be
agile,” Radial's Wnorowski said.
So for some of its clients, Radial will now be hiring two weeks
before Thanksgiving weekend, the traditional start for the season,
instead of four weeks before the kickoff. Radial is also training
holiday hires faster with new technology that's simplifying their
tasks. It used to take a couple of days to train a worker, but now
it only takes a couple of hours, she said.
Meanwhile, Target will offer current workers additional hours and
then will tap into a separate pool of workers— 43,000— who pick up
shifts. The Minneapolis-based company also hires seasonal workers
across its nearly 2,000 stores and more than 60 distribution
facilities to meet demand, it said.
For the past few years, Walmart, the largest private employer, has
been offering its workers extra hours available during the holidays,
a Walmart spokesperson said, noting it's worked well and the
feedback from customers and workers has been “overwhelmingly
positive.”
The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer said there may be some
seasonal hiring on a store-by-store basis, but most locations will
dole out those hours to current workers.
Economic data blackout could create challenges
Waiting until the last minute to hire could mean a mad scramble to
find talent, but companies say that with the slowing economy, they
don't anticipate having a hard time.
Meanwhile, the temporary halt of the release of economic reports
leaves retailers in the dark about sales forecasts and the workers
they may need.
“Certainly, for our customers not having access to data will put
more of a challenge on their ability to forecast,” Wnorowski of
Radial said. “But we’ll stay very close to them as we go into peak
and we’ll adjust as soon we see things changing.”
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