Africa is hurting again from a global crisis it had no part in starting
[March 28, 2026] By
OPE ADETAYO
LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — Lagos taxi driver Adegbola Isaac went to the gas
station twice last weekend. Each time, the price in the Nigerian city
had climbed further and hit 1,350 naira ($0.99) per liter, a nearly 35%
increase since the Iran war started. That's wiped out most of his daily
profit.
“It is hitting hard,” Isaac told The Associated Press.
Like many people across the world, Isaac is one of millions across
Africa who are reeling from the economic impacts of the faraway conflict
in the Middle East, which began Feb. 28 with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes
on Iran.
For many Africans, the fuel price hike because of the Strait of Hormuz
being largely closed off worsens the hardships they already struggle
with in some of the world's poorest households.
The latest shock also isn't isolated.
Africa is hurting again from another global crisis it had no part in
starting.
From the COVID-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine and now the Middle East
conflict, the world’s fastest-growing continent — with a population
rivaling China and India — is at the painful end of ripple effects that
include a global scramble for critical resources like fuel and
fertilizer.
With the majority of African countries being net importers of refined
oil products, the impact has been swift, leading to rising retail fuel
prices in Africa and associated increases in the costs of most goods and
services.
Experts say African countries are critically integrated into global
economies and are exposed to global shocks because of their dependence
on major economies.
The United Nations on Friday said it is pursuing a way to allow
fertilizer to resume safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, hoping
it would build confidence in wider diplomatic efforts around the Iran
war.
Africa is the epicenter of crises
According to a 2025 report by U.N. Trade and Development, or UNCTAD,
which describes Africa as “the epicenter of overlapping global crises,”
more than half of the continent’s imports and exports are with five
non-African countries.
All of Kenya's fuel comes from the Middle East, particularly from the
United Arab Emirates, with its fuel retailers saying 20% of the
country's outlets are already affected. Uganda's fuel stock was
initially projected to last a few weeks.
South Africa sources a significant amount of its fuel from Saudi Arabia.
Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, lacks local refinery capacity
and relies on importing refined crude products from Europe.
Adapting to higher prices
In Zimbabwe, health labor workers protested in favor of an increase in
wages as the cost of living rose sharply. In response, the government
plans to increase the blending of fuel with ethanol, from the current 5%
to 20% ethanol blending. The blend poses a danger to cars, and a higher
blend contributes to the emission of pollutants.
“I now avoid going into town during peak hours because the fares are too
high,” said Washington Nyakarize, an informal cellphone trader who works
in Harare’s Central Business District. “If I go later, the charge is a
bit lower, but I lose business, because most customers come early in the
morning.”
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A fuel station, in Harare, March 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Wonder Mashura,
File)
 After South Africa's fuel supplies
from Saudi Arabia dropped, diesel-dependent industries started to
panic-buy, fearing the worst. That is despite the Department of
Mineral and Petroleum Resources, or DMPR, saying the country still
has untapped strategic reserves and diversified supply routes.
War is likely to impact more than fuel
Access to fertilizer across Africa, including conflict-wracked
countries like Sudan and Somalia, is set to be impacted, according
to UNCTAD.
Kenya’s flower industry also has reported weekly losses of up to
$1.4 million since the Iran war began, with growers attributing the
losses to a decline in demand and shipping disruptions.
Experts say the war could further put Africa in uncharted territory
if it lasts longer.
“If the conflict persists for another month or two, honestly, we’re
going to be in unknown terrain, that no one else, like, no one can
really predict, and we just have to wait and see,” said Zainab Usman,
a senior research scholar at the New York-based Center on Global
Energy Policy.
Governments scramble for alternatives
With the global squeeze in oil supply, African governments have
begun to look for alternative routes for supplies.
Bloomberg reported this week that several countries including South
Africa, Kenya and Ghana have reached out to Nigeria's Dangote
Refinery for fuel deals.
While it regularly exports jet fuel used in aircraft to the U.S. and
Asia, the Dangote refinery this week announced that it completed the
sale of 12 shipments of refined petroleum products to several
African countries, including Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana
and Togo, a first at that scale since reaching full capacity earlier
this year.
Energy experts say the Dangote refinery could be challenged in
meeting growing demands for its products if its planned expansion is
slowed down or if there are disruptions to its crude oil supply.
“As long as there is a steady supply of crude oil, the (Dangote)
refinery has the capacity to meet some of the needs” from across the
continent, according to Olufola Wusu, a Lagos-based oil and gas
expert who was part of a team that helped review Nigeria’s national
gas policy.
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Michelle Gumede and Mogomotsi Magome in Johannesburg, South Africa,
and Farai Mutsaka in Harare, Zimbabwe, contributed to this report.
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