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After two years of contraction, global sales of personal luxury
goods are forecast to grow 2% to 4% in 2026, reaching 365
billion euros to 373 billion euros ($415 billion to $424
billion), up from 358 billion euros last year, Bain said in a
semi-annual study. The recovery is expected to be led by the
Americas, where some U.S. luxury brands posted first-quarter
growth of as much as 15%.
“People are still alive and want to live their better lives,”
said co-author Claudia D’Arpizio, a partner at Bain, considered
the leading consultancy for luxury goods. “So there is this mega
trend of looking for good quality of life, of improving their
lives and finding the meaning and living the experiences that is
stronger than the fear of the future.”
Following a consumer rebellion over steep price hikes, prices
have stabilized with more entry-level offerings, and consumers
are returning to the luxury arena, D’Arpizio said. She called it
“a healthier situation vis-a-vis two years ago,” but added that
brands will continue to have to fight to regain “customer love
that has been a little bit broken in the previous years.”
The base-case scenario assumes Middle East conflicts stabilize,
local spending helps to offset uneven tourist flows and demand
in China gradually improves. Bain’s downside scenario calls for
flat growth, while easing geopolitical tensions and accelerated
growth in China could lift growth to as much as 6%.
U.S. shoppers were spending on everyday casualwear, jewelry and
beauty products, with young consumers under 35 years old fueling
sales.
China is forecast to return to growth, helped by online sales of
ready-to-wear, while Europe is lagging due largely to a dip in
tourism caused by geopolitical tensions. Even Dubai has seen
locals return to stores.
“People want to live a normal life, that’s a stronger feeling,”
D’Arpizio said.
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