China’s trade surplus hits $938 billion for Jan-Sep as pressure ramps up
to rebalance trade
[October 14, 2026] By
CHAN HO-HIM
HONG KONG (AP) — China’s exports surged 36.3% in September from a year
earlier, its customs agency said Wednesday, bringing it on track to
exceed last year's record trade surplus as pressure ramped up from its
trading partners, including the European Union, to rebalance trade.
The exports data, which was better than what economists had expected,
accelerated from the 25% growth in August. High-tech goods such as
semiconductors and autos have helped fuel its rising shipments overseas.
September's export growth pace was the fastest since February, according
to FactSet data.
Imports climbed 31% in September year-on-year, also accelerating from
August’s 28.2% rise. Still, China recorded a $133.5 billion trade
surplus last month, widening from $119.1 billion in August.
For the first nine months, China’s trade surplus reached $938 billion,
with expectations growing that it could surpass last year’s full-year
$1.2 trillion record.
Strong exports have helped drive China’s overall economic growth this
year, at a time when domestic consumption and investment remained
sluggish, weighed on by a yearslong real estate sector downturn.
However, China’s export resilience is now faced with mounting
challenges, said Ecaterina Bigos, a senior market strategist at BNP
Paribas Asset Management.
“While U.S.-China trade tensions have eased somewhat, the EU’s push to
rebalance directly targets high-value exports,” she said.
The U.S. has launched an ongoing probe against China and other trading
partners this year on their excess industrial capacity, although
Washington and Beijing last month reached an agreement to extend their
trade truce and cut tariffs on $60 billion worth of goods.
The 27-nation EU has particularly been struggling to rebalance a trade
deficit exceeding $1.1 billion a day with China. EU trade chief Maroš
Šefčovič, following his visit to Beijing where he met his Chinese
counterpart Wang Wentao last week, said a deal has been reached with
Beijing, including halving Chinese hybrid car imports into the EU over
the next few years.
Many of China’s trading partners are facing weak growth prospects and
are fearful of their manufacturing industries being overrun by exports
from China, said Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics and trade policy
at Cornell University.
Policymakers have also pointed to a weakened yuan, China’s currency,
versus the U.S. dollar and other currencies contributing to Chinese
exports being cheaper overseas when compared with goods from other
countries, adding to trade imbalances.
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Workers at the booth for Chinese DRAM producer ChangXin Memory
Technologies, also known as CXMT, wait for visitors at the 21st
China International Semiconductor Expo in Beijing, Nov. 20, 2024.
(AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)
 China has said it has “no need or
intent” to gain competitive advantages through currency devaluation
and that its trade growth has been driven by its industrial
competitiveness in the global market.
Between January and September, China’s semiconductor exports soared
108.1% year-on-year in terms of value, customs data showed. Its
exports of automatic data processing equipment and parts jumped
54.6%, while auto exports rose 54.3%, driven by an increased global
demand for Chinese electric vehicles and hybrids.
China’s trade surplus and its high-tech export model depend on open
markets, Bigos said, and while diversifying its exports into markets
such as Southeast Asia and Latin America can help, it cannot fully
substitute for Western demand.
The country’s reliance on high-tech exports, meanwhile, could face
challenges as some U.S. technology industry leaders called for a
global slowdown in the development of artificial intelligence over
safety reasons.
“A slowdown in the global AI investment cycle could pose a greater
threat to China’s export growth than trade restrictions imposed by
other countries,” said Max Zenglein, Asia Pacific senior economist
at The Conference Board.
Chinese leaders have set an annual economic expansion target of
4.5%-5% for 2026. It is set to release its July-September quarterly
economic growth figures next week.
This week, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for
China’s 2026 economic growth to 4.5%, down 0.1 percentage point from
its previous projection, as it warned that the country's robust
exports were unable to fully offset domestic weaknesses.
While Chinese officials have highlighted the need to bolster
domestic demand, analysts believe that has yet to become a priority
for this year even after authorities recently rolled out new
measures to help lift its economy, including subsidies for
homebuyers’ mortgage interest payments.
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