Economists don't expect reopening the US to Mexican cattle imports to
reduce high beef prices
[August 25, 2026] By
JOHN HANNA and SARAH RAZA
The U.S. reopened a border crossing in Arizona to cattle from Mexico on
Monday as part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to reduce
record-high beef prices, though economists doubt the move will mean much
to grocery store shoppers.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has said concerns about the New World
screwworm's spread lessened enough to allow the movement of cattle from
Mexico at a crossing in Douglas, Arizona, about 230 miles (370
kilometers) southeast of Phoenix. Over time, it hopes to reopen other
crossings in New Mexico and Texas.
“Today, the border in Sonora is open for livestock,” Mexican President
Claudia Sheinbaum said during a Monday morning news conference in Mexico
City, referring to the Mexican state bordering Arizona.
Cattle were coming across the border by mid-afternoon Monday.
Beef prices clearly are a concern for President Donald Trump, who
announced Friday that he would allow up to 331,000 tons (300,000 metric
tons) of imported ground beef into the U.S., tariff-free, to be sold at
below-market prices over the next 90 days. In February, the White House
said closing the border to livestock imports from Mexico more than a
year ago was “essential” to containing the screwworm but it has
exacerbated a shortage of cattle for slaughter in the U.S.
“The administration obviously has a lot of incentive to try to be able
to say that they’re doing something about high beef prices in
particular,” said Derrell Peel, a professor of agribusiness at Oklahoma
State University. “Beef has been singled out because it is an expensive
product and because it’s just high profile.”
The Trump administration closed the border to cattle imports in May 2025
as part of its response to the screwworm, a parasite with flesh-eating
larvae that can infest and even kill cattle or other animals. The move
came as the U.S. already was struggling to meet beef demand, thanks to a
cattle herd that has been shrinking for five years and now is the
smallest in decades.
Because the USDA plans a phased reopening of the border, it will take
months for Mexican imports to return to their traditional levels, Peel
said. Mexico has traditionally provided 1.1 million head, or about 3% of
the U.S. cattle supply.
“I don’t expect to see any measurable impact on cattle prices or beef
prices soon,” Peel said.
The smallest US herd in decades fueled record prices
The USDA reported that on Jan. 1, the U.S. cattle herd had dropped to
86.2 million head, the lowest figure in 75 years. Beef prices
skyrocketed over the past five years, rising significantly faster than
food prices as a whole, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
The average price of a pound (453 grams) of ground beef rose nearly 57%
from July 2021 to July 2026, from $4.39 to $6.89 — hitting a peak of
$6.90 in May — with a 10% increase over the previous year. Food prices
have risen about 25% overall in those five years, according to the
bureau's numbers.
The price for a pound of uncooked steak rose 35% over the past five
years, reaching a record $13.06 per pound in July, also 10% higher than
a year before.
But Glynn Tonsor, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State
University, said the potential effect on beef prices from the smaller
supply of cattle was lessened because the U.S. beef industry is more
efficient and has been able to get more meat from each animal than in
past years.
The USDA says the reopening starts at a safe spot
U.S. government and industry officials view the New World screwworm fly
as a major threat to the nation's $113 billion cattle industry. It was
an annual warm-weather scourge for U.S. ranchers from at least the 1930s
through the 1960s, until the U.S. largely eradicated it. The fly was
contained for years near the Panama Canal, but returned to southern
Mexico in late 2024 and advanced toward the U.S., with the first case in
Texas since 1966 reported June 3.
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Cows are fenced in before being displayed at a cattle auction in
Hermosillo, Sonora state, Mexico, on July 29, 2025. (AP
Photo/Fernando Llano, File)
 Since then, more than 40 cases have
been confirmed in southern Texas and southeastern New Mexico, with
infestations of cattle, sheep, goats and dogs.
In her July announcement of plans for a phased reopening of the
border, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said it was
possible to start with an Arizona crossing because the northern
Mexican states of Sonora and Chihuahua had stronger animal health
programs than other parts of Mexico. She also said each animal would
be inspected and declared free of the parasite before crossing the
border.
U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman said the USDA
is taking a “careful, science-based” approach to reopening the
border and imposing strong animal health protocols.
“This is an important step for America’s cattle producers,
especially our feeders in the border states,” Boozman, an Arkansas
Republican, said in a statement. “Restoring this long-standing trade
is critical to strengthening our cattle supply and supporting a
healthy, competitive beef industry.”
Drought, low prices led to the smallest US herd in 75 years
Drought in cattle-producing regions of the U.S. is a major reason
the national herd is so small, said David Anderson, professor of
agricultural economics at Texas A&M University. If grass doesn’t
grow, cattle have nothing to graze upon, forcing ranchers to sell
them off. Low cattle prices over the past two decades also are a
factor.
“Where we are today is sort of the culmination of some 18, 19, 20
years of very low cattle prices,” he said. “That forces us to reduce
our herds. Drought forces us to reduce them even further.”
The shortage of cattle also has left beef processing plants
operating below capacity.
Tyson Foods, one of the nation's largest meat processors, announced
in November that it was reorganizing its beef operations and closing
a plant in Lexington, Nebraska, about 220 miles (354 kilometers)
southwest of Omaha. Earlier this month, it announced plans to close
a plant in Utah outside Salt Lake City and another in Illinois about
150 miles (241 kilometers) southeast of Chicago.
In June, another major U.S. processor, JBS USA, announced plans to
close beef plants in Memphis and outside Philadelphia, though it
later said it would keep some operations at the Pennsylvania plant
to preserve 400 jobs there.
Rebuilding the U.S. herd — and ultimately lowering prices — likely
will take years, largely because a cow typically has only one calf a
year, Peel said. In addition, breeding a heifer keeps her out of the
food supply, tightening it further as the herd is rebuilt.
Peel said prices will remain high for some time and for elected
officials, “There’s nothing you can do.”
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