Oil and gas supplies could take months to return to normal after Iran
deal, energy experts say
[June 15, 2026] By
CATHY BUSSEWITZ
NEW YORK (AP) — High oil and gasoline prices and energy supply problems
won't be solved overnight, despite an agreement to end the Iran war and
open the Strait of Hormuz announced Sunday.
It will likely take months before energy companies can resume operations
to the point of meeting the world’s demand, according to energy experts.
The slow pace of the process of shipping and refining crude oil, and
doubts about the security of traveling through the strait mean the
effect won't be seen immediately, they said.
Ships loaded with crude oil have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for
more than three months, unable to safely travel through the waterway,
through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gasoline supplies
typically traveled before the war began.
“It’s going to take time for people to feel comfortable and for
insurance to be in place ... particularly to get people on the ground to
restart some of these assets,” said Daniel Evans, global head of fuels
and refining research at S&P Global Energy.
Still, oil prices slipped early Monday after the deal was announced.
Brent crude, the international standard, was down $3.45 at $83.89 per
barrel. U.S. benchmark crude oil lost $4.03 to $80.85 per barrel.
Those prices are still well above the roughly $70 per barrel where oil
was trading before the war started.
As the higher prices unwind, ships that have been stranded will have to
exit the strait, and then new tankers will have to come in to be loaded,
Evans said.
“To bring a ship in, you need to be confident that you’ve got a big
enough window of safety to bring it in, load it and move it out," he
added.
Oil tankers also move slowly, he explained. It takes months to travel
from the strait to distant countries, deliver the crude oil to a
refinery for processing and then arrive at its final destination.
[to top of second column] |
 In addition, some producers in the
Middle East paused extracting oil from the ground, known as a
shut-in, when they ran out of storage space. Restarting those
operations can be a slow process.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, where there
are alternate pipelines or routes besides the Strait of Hormuz to
deliver oil, may be among the quickest to resume production, said
Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals and oil
markets at Wood Mackenzie, an analytics firm.
“But places like Iraq could be much more challenged because they’ve
had a much bigger shut-in, their fields are more difficult ... it
may well take about a year before they get back," he said.
Investment in the energy system, which can take years to see the
results, ground to a halt after the strait's closure, Gelder said.
So it will take time for this capital to restart.
Countries that shut in oil production won't want to restart until
they know there is a stable, durable strait, and that a ceasefire
will last more than 30 or 60 days, said Daniel Sternoff, senior
fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.
“We don’t know what open means or what the speed of evacuation of
trapped material is going to be,” he said.
All contents © copyright 2026 Associated Press. All rights reserved
 |
