Stocks rally and oil sinks after Trump hints at a possible end to war,
even as Iran denies talks
[March 24, 2026] By
STAN CHOE
NEW YORK (AP) — A cautious relief swept through financial markets Monday
after President Donald Trump said the United States has talked with Iran
about a possible end to their war. Oil prices eased, and stock prices
rose on Wall Street following severe losses taken elsewhere in the world
before Trump’s announcement.
The price for a barrel of Brent crude fell 10.9% to settle at $99.94,
down from nearly $120 at one point last week, after Trump said the
United States and Iran held productive talks the last two days
“regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the
Middle East.” The S&P 500 climbed 1.1% for its best day since the war
began.
The market’s moves were tentative, though, after Iran denied such talks
took place and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said
that “fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets” in a
posting on X. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from a surge of
nearly 1,135 points during the morning to a more modest gain of 540
before accelerating to finish with a climb of 631.
Over the weekend, Trump had threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power
plants if it doesn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. The
narrow waterway off Iran’s coast has become a sore point for Trump and
the economy because a sharp slowdown in traffic is preventing oil
tankers from leaving the Persian Gulf to supply customers around the
world.
Trump said Monday that he is postponing attacks on Iranian power plants
for five days to allow talks to continue. Quickly afterward, though,
came the denials from Iran about talks, while Iran’s semiofficial Fars
and Tasnim news agencies portrayed the American president as backing
down.
Turkey and Egypt, meanwhile, said they had spoken to the warring
parties, the first sign of coordinated mediation, which could be an
encouraging signal.
Amid all the developments, the price of Brent crude fell as low as $96
immediately after Trump announced the postponement but quickly recovered
a chunk of that loss. Benchmark U.S. crude had a similar reaction,
immediately dropping toward $84 per barrel before yo-yoing back above
$92 and then settling at $88.13, down 10.3% from Friday.
Financial markets have had vicious swings, both up and down, since the
war began because of uncertainty about how long it may last. The fear is
that a long-term disruption could keep so much oil and natural gas off
global markets that it creates a punishing wave of inflation for the
global economy.
The swings of the past few weeks are similar to, but not as dramatic as,
those that hit last year when Trump shocked the global economy on
“Liberation Day.” Many of his worldwide tariffs ended up being milder
than he initially threatened, and the back-and-forth in negotiations led
to historic moves up and down.
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Michael Capolino works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange
in New York, Thursday, March 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
 Monday’s overriding reaction in
financial markets was nevertheless one of relief. The S&P 500 rose
74.52 points to 6,581.00. The Dow climbed 631.00, or 1.4%, to
46,208.47, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 299.15, or 1.4%, to
21,946.76.
In Europe, stock indexes immediately flipped from losses to gains
following Trump’s announcement. France’s CAC 40 rose 0.8%, and
Germany’s DAX returned 1.2%.
That compares with sharp drops for Asian stock markets, which
finished trading before Trump made his announcement. South Korea’s
Kospi careened 6.5% lower, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 3.5% and Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng fell 3.5%.
Treasury yields also eased in the bond market following Trump’s
announcement. High Treasury yields and disruption in the bond market
were factors that Trump named a year ago when he backed off his
initial threats for global tariffs. The moves caused critics to
allege Trump always chickens out, or “TACO,” if financial markets
show enough pain.
Like oil prices, Treasury yields still remain well above where they
were before the war began, even after Monday’s drop. The worry is
that high oil prices could keep the Federal Reserve and other
central banks from cutting interest rates, which would give the
global economy and prices for investments a boost.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.35% from 4.39% late
Friday. But it remains solidly above its 3.97% level from just
before the war.
On Wall Street, companies with big fuel bills that will benefit from
any easing of oil prices led the market. Norwegian Cruise Line
Holdings surged 6.2%, while United Airlines climbed 4.5%, and
American Airlines rose 3.6%. All, though, are still down for the
year so far.
Stocks of smaller companies were also particularly strong, and the
Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks jumped a market-leading 2.3%.
It had dropped last week to 10% below its record, a sharp enough
fall that professional investors have a name for it: a “correction.”
The S&P 500, which is the main measure of the U.S. stock market’s
strength, pulled back within 5.7% of its own all-time high set early
this year.
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AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama, Matt Ott and Chan Ho-him
contributed.
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