Biden holds 1 point lead over Trump, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows
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 [May 01, 2024]
By Jason Lange
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden holds a marginal lead
over Donald Trump ahead of the November presidential election as the
Republican candidate is mired in a state court fighting charges he
falsified business records, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that
closed on Tuesday.
Some 40% of registered voters in the two-day poll said they would vote
for Biden, a Democrat, if the election were held today, compared with
39% who picked former President Trump. That 1 point lead was down from a
4 point lead Biden had in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 4-8.
The survey had a roughly 3 percentage point margin of error for
registered voters and many voters remain on the fence six months before
the Nov. 5 election.
Some 28% of registered voters in the poll said they had not picked a
candidate, were leaning toward third-party options or might not vote at
all.
The poll found 8% of respondents would pick Robert Kennedy Jr., an
anti-vaccine activist running as an independent, if he were on the
ballot with Trump and Biden.
While nationwide surveys give important signals on American support for
political candidates, just a handful of competitive states typically
tilt the balance in the U.S. electoral college, which ultimately decides
who wins a presidential election.
Both candidates carry significant liabilities ahead of what is expected
to be a close race and the first U.S. presidential election rematch in
nearly 70 years.
Trump has spent much of April in a Manhattan courtroom in what is the
first of four pending criminal trials against him.
The trial in Manhattan involves accusations Trump covered up a payment
to an adult film actress before the 2016 presidential election in
exchange for the actress' silence about an alleged sexual encounter she
had with Trump.
An earlier Reuters/Ipsos poll also found a firm majority of Americans
considered the charges to be serious. Trump has pleaded not guilty to
the charges and denies any such encounter.
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Combination picture showing former U.S. President Donald Trump
attending the Trump Organization civil fraud trial, in New York
State Supreme Court in the Manhattan borough of New York City, U.S.,
November 6, 2023 and U.S. President Joe Biden participating in a
meeting with Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the Oval
Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., March 1, 2024.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid and Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo
The other trials involve charges Trump tried to overturn his 2020
election defeat or that he mishandled sensitive documents after
leaving the presidency in 2021. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all
charges.
Biden's liabilities include concerns about his age - 81 - as well as
strong criticism from a slice of his Democratic Party over his
support of Israel's war on Hamas militants.
The poll, which surveyed adults nationwide, included many ways to
measure support for Biden and Trump, 77, and most pointed to a close
race.
Trump had a 2 percentage point lead over Biden among all respondents
in the poll, but Biden's lead among registered voters was
significant because people who are already registered to vote are
more likely to do so in November. Only two-thirds of eligible voters
turned out in the 2020 presidential election in which Biden defeated
Trump.
Trump led Biden among male respondents 41% to 35%, while Biden led
among women 35% to 33%. Trump led among respondents without a
college degree while Biden led among those who had one.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll included responses from 856 registered voters
who were surveyed online nationwide.
(Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Scott Malone and Deepa
Babington)
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